How Trump Won | Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden.

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ABOUT RISKY BUSINESS WITH NATE SILVER & MARIA KONNIKOVA
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.

Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.

Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.

Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.

ABOUT NATE SILVER
Nate Silver, co-host of the Risky Business podcast, is the founder and former editor-in-chief (2008-2023) of FiveThirtyEight, which was published by The New York Times, ESPN, and ABC News. FiveThirtyEight first gained national attention during the 2008 presidential election, when Nate correctly predicted the results of the presidential election in 49 states. In 2012, he called 50 of 50 states.

He is the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t, which reached #2 on the Amazon bestseller list and won the 2013 Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science. He is now at work on a new book, On The Edge, about gambling and risk, to be published in 2024. Nate has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament earnings and in 2022-2023 ranked in the top 300 players in the world in the Global Poker Index. He has several honorary degrees, has been in the Time 100, and ranked as Fast Company’s #1 of the 100 Most Creative People in Business 2013 He recently launched the newsletter Silver Bulletin.

ABOUT MARIA KONNIKOVA
Maria Konnikova, co-host of the Risky Business podcast, is the author, most recently, of The Biggest Bluff, a New York Times bestseller, one of the Times’ 100 Notable Books of 2020, and a finalist for the Telegraph Best Sports Writing Awards for 2021. Her previous books are the bestsellers The Confidence Game, winner of the 2016 Robert P. Balles Prize in Critical Thinking, and Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes, an Anthony and Agatha Award finalist.

Maria is a regularly contributing writer for The New Yorker whose writing has won numerous awards, including the 2019 Excellence in Science Journalism Award from the Society of Personality and Social Psychology. While researching The Biggest Bluff, Maria became an international poker champion and the winner of over half a million in tournament earnings—and inadvertently turned into a professional poker player. She is currently a member of PokerStars Team Pro. Maria’s writing has been featured in Best American Science and Nature Writing and has been translated into over twenty languages.

Maria formerly hosted the podcast The Grift, a show that explored con artists and the lives they ruin. Her podcasting work earned her a National Magazine Award nomination in 2019. She graduated from Harvard University and received her PhD in psychology from Columbia University.

ABOUT PUSHKIN INDUSTRIES
Pushkin Industries is dedicated to producing audio in any format that challenges listeners, encourages their curiosity, and inspires joy. Or, in other words: Good, Smart, Fun. Founded in 2018, Pushkin has produced numerous podcasts that have broken into the top 10 on the Apple Podcasts chart, including Malcolm Gladwell’s hugely successful Revisionist History, as well as Against the Rules from Michael Lewis, Paul McCartney’s A Life in Lyrics, The Happiness Lab with Dr. Laurie Santos, Broken Record, Tim Harford’s Cautionary Tales, The Last Archive, Deep Cover, Lost Hills and Apple’s Best Show of 2021, A Slight Change of Plans. Pushkin’s audiobook catalog includes Steve Martin’s So Many Steves, Inside Voice by Lake Bell, the Pulitzer Prize-winning The Netanyahus by Joshua Cohen, Liar’s Poker by Michael Lewis, Fauci by Michael Specter, Heartbreak by Florence Williams, and Malcolm Gladwell’s Miracle and Wonder: Conversations with Paul Simon, The Bomber Mafia, and Talking to Strangers. Follow us @pushkinpods.

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