#澳洲房产 #RBA利率 #悉尼房价
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通胀终于降了。就在几天前，澳洲统计局（ABS）公布了2025年11月的月度CPI数据。整体通胀从10月的3.8%，直接降到了3.4%。比上个月低了0.4%，比市场预期的3.7%还要低不少。通胀下降的速度，比大多数经济学家预测的都快。按正常逻辑，这应该是好消息。通胀下来了，央行可以继续降息，房贷压力减轻，买房的人变多，房价应该涨才对。但诡异的事情发生了。12月的房价数据一出来，悉尼跌了，墨尔本也跌了。不光房价跌，拍卖清盘率也崩了。悉尼的清盘率只有58.1%，创下2024年12月以来的最低点。整整一年，没这么惨过。
这剧本不对啊。通胀下降，不是应该利好房市吗？降息预期不是应该推高房价吗？数据出来是好消息，房价怎么反而跌了？更让人揪心的是，澳洲央行RBA的态度来了个180度大转弯。从几个月前的「我们可能还要继续降息」，变成了「我们正在讨论什么情况下需要加息」。加息。你没听错，加息。
今天这期视频，我带你看清这场「好消息变坏消息」背后的逻辑。通胀明明降了，房价为什么反而跌？央行到底在打什么算盘？2026年的澳洲房产市场，是最后的上车机会，还是暴风雨前的宁静？
00:00 通胀下降房价下跌
01:41 通胀数据里藏着什么
04:12 央行态度大逆转
06:50 大城市领跌
09:22 可负担性到了极限
12:32 供需的结构性困局
15:00 2026年的方向
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