Скачать или смотреть AI Investment Echoes the Dot-Com Bubble: Winners & Losers

Robert F. Smith, founder and CEO of Vista Equity Partners (one of the world's largest tech-focused PE firms), reveals how AI is transforming business—and why the current $3 trillion investment trajectory isn't sustainable. Plus, he demonstrates his personal AI agent and shares real productivity numbers from 19 portfolio companies using agentic AI.

🎥 FULL INTERVIEW:    • Robert F. Smith on the Future of AI Value ...  
📊 Read us: https://www.investingtimedaily.com/

📚 HIS NEW BOOK:
"Lead Boldly: Seven Principles from Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.": https://amzn.to/3M8WC6F

🚨 KEY INSIGHTS:

*The $3 Trillion Problem:*

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says they need 50 gigawatts of power over 10 years at $60 billion per gigawat. Smith does the math: "$3 trillion of investments. Long-term I think you'll see interesting returns. But short-term that is NOT necessarily sustainable."

Multiply OpenAI times Gemini times every other AI company—the numbers don't work.

*The Internet Rhyme:*

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. This is another general purpose technology just like the internet."

Late 90s/early 2000s: Massive capital expansion, early players flushed out (remember Global Crossing?), later players captured massive returns.

Smith's prediction: "There's going to be some huge winners and a number of losers in this context."

*The Efficiency Shift Happening Now:*

The market is forcing diversification away from Nvidia because the costs must come down. AMD and Broadcom becoming beneficiaries as they "bring that $60 billion per gigawatt down to something closer to $20 or $15 billion."

*The Circular Financing Question:*

Asked about Microsoft investing in Anthropic, then Anthropic using Azure (circular deals): Smith sees it as ecosystems evolving, not red flags. "Just like in the internet first buildouts."

Oracle and hyperscalers taking out loans for first time ever to finance AI infrastructure—normal part of the cycle.

*Smith's Personal AI Agent "Q":*

Named after James Bond's Q (because he's an "early adopter" who took "the best letter"), Smith's agent does:

News reporting across global theaters (Asia, Middle East, North America, Latin America)
AI innovation tracking (papers published, implications)
Portfolio KPI monitoring (19 companies with agentic solutions)
Pre-prompted daily dashboard

"I wake up in the morning and get a dashboard... tracking what's happening in the portfolio."

*Real Productivity Numbers: 20-30X:*

Vista's "Agentic Factory" launched—19 portfolio companies now have enterprise-class agentic solutions with "real revenues and productivity."

*Case Study: Gainsight (Customer Success AI)*

Traditional model: $2,000+ per person using customer success tools to manage large clients. Long tail of smaller clients often outsourced.

With agentic solution: "You no longer need anyone to do that work. The implications are 20x-30x productivity from using an agentic solution versus having an outsourced infrastructure."

*Edge Computing Reality:*

"Do you actually need that level of compute for all applications? In the enterprise, you actually don't." —Key cost-saving insight

*Chip Depreciation & Renewal Cycles:*

Smith acknowledges the replacement cycle challenge. Elon's approach: "Brute force it—get as many chips as possible and deal with the replacement cycles."

"Infant mortality on these chips" is known in some environments, new in cluster configurations. "It's all math... all part of the equation."

*The MLK Connection:*

Smith's book takes Dr. King's principles for modern leadership. His favorite King line: The March on Washington was for "jobs AND freedom—everyone loses the jobs part."

"We are focused on economic prosperity. AI right now is creating opportunity for massive prosperity for economies, for communities."

Smith wants the book in LLMs so "this new generation understands the relevancy and importance" of King's words for building "more inclusive, productive, prosperous societies."

*Bottom Line:*

Current trajectory ($3T) unsustainable short-term
Efficiency innovations will drive costs down (AMD, Broadcom benefit)
Real enterprise productivity gains (20-30X) already happening
Winners and losers will emerge like dot-com era
Personal AI agents becoming standard for executives
Edge computing reduces need for massive compute everywhere

💬 QUESTION: Robert F. Smith has a personal AI agent named "Q" managing his portfolio and research. Would you use an AI agent for your business? What would you name it?

#RobertFSmith #VistaEquity #AIAgents #AgenticAI #Nvidia #PrivateEquity #AIBubble #CNBC #AIProductivity #EnterpriseAI #MachineLearning #TechInvesting #AIInfrastructure #CustomerSuccess #Gainsight

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⚖️ DISCLAIMER: Educational commentary under fair use. All content credited to CNBC Squawk Box and Robert F. Smith. Not investment advice. Consult professionals for financial decisions.

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