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Climate variation structures tree seedling recruitment along resource gradients in a northern hardwood forest


Climate change alters seedling recruitment through warming, drought, and changing understory conditions. Using 26 years of data from 12 Michigan forest sites, we found that climate impacts vary by species and site moisture. Recruitment under future climates favored five of the ten most common species (e.g., Acer rubrum, Quercus rubra), while canopy cover buffered mesic-site seedlings from drought. Fine-scale environmental variation and overstory structure mediate species-specific responses, determining winners and losers in northern hardwoods under climate change.