Скачать или смотреть Market Volatility Explained: 126% US Solar Tax Shock, IRFC Crash & What Traders Must Do Tomorrow

Indian stock markets traded with high volatility today, driven largely by negative global trade news and domestic PSU-related developments, even as benchmark indices tried to stabilize. The session clearly reflected a conflict between bargain buying and fear-driven selling, keeping traders cautious throughout the day.

The single biggest trigger that disturbed market sentiment was the United States imposing a steep ~126% countervailing duty on solar cell and module imports from India. This decision directly impacts Indian solar manufacturers who export to the US market. A 126% duty effectively makes Indian solar products more than double in cost, sharply reducing their competitiveness. As a result, solar and renewable energy stocks saw aggressive selling pressure, especially in mid-cap and small-cap names. Investors fear that export volumes, margins, and future growth guidance may take a hit if these duties are finalized. This news not only affected solar stocks but also weakened overall risk appetite in the broader market.

Adding to the negative sentiment was the sharp fall in Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) shares. The stock declined around 4% after the Government announced an Offer For Sale (OFS) to divest up to 4% stake. Markets usually react negatively to OFS announcements because they increase supply at a discounted price. Short-term traders and institutional participants booked profits, pushing IRFC towards fresh short-term lows. Although IRFC’s long-term fundamentals remain stable, near-term price pressure is expected until the OFS process is absorbed by the market. This also dragged sentiment in other PSU and railway-linked stocks.

Despite these negatives, benchmark indices such as Nifty 50 and Sensex managed to avoid a major breakdown. This was mainly due to support from metal and selective auto stocks, where buying emerged at lower levels. However, the recovery lacked strength and volume, indicating that buyers are defensive and selective, not aggressive.

Sector-wise, IT stocks remained weak, reflecting global tech uncertainty and cautious outlooks. Metals showed relative strength, benefiting from value buying and expectations of stable global demand. PSU stocks underperformed overall, due to concerns around government divestments and profit booking after previous rallies.

Market breadth stayed weak for most of the session, meaning more stocks declined than advanced, which is a clear sign of underlying weakness. Volatility levels remained elevated, suggesting that traders are reacting quickly to news rather than following a clear trend.

📌 What This Means for Tomorrow

For the next trading session, the market is expected to remain range-bound with a cautious bias.

Any upside move will need strong global support and sectoral participation.

Failure to hold key support levels may invite fresh intraday selling.

Solar stocks are likely to stay volatile due to tariff uncertainty.

IRFC and PSU stocks may stabilize only after clarity on OFS demand.

✅ Final View

Today’s market clearly showed that news-driven volatility is dominating price action. Traders should focus on strict risk management, trade with confirmation, and avoid emotional decisions. In such markets, capital protection is more important than chasing returns.