Nate Silver on how to predict the 2024 election

Labor Day is a critical mile-marker on the road to the general election, now just two months away. Pollsters are busy processing data and making predictions, but nobody really knows whether America will end up with Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the White House. Nate Silver is one of America's most well-respected pollsters. The former poker player set up FiveThirtyEight, a polling company and now writes the Silver Bullet on Substack. Nate Silver's latest book On the Edge: the Art of Risking Everything takes a look at two mindsets: the River and the Village.

Nate joins Freddy Gray on the Americano show to discuss probability in sport and politics, how luck is often undervalued in politics, whether VP picks are an key decision in general elections and why J.D. Vance may be a bad choice for Trump.

1:00 How Nate got into politics
4:05 The river vs the village
9:15 Neuroticism within risk
11:30 The tech revolution and AI
19:00 Bitcoin and blockchain
23:00 Predicting elections
27:00 Harris vs Trump

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