Semiconductors, Tariffs, & Chip Restrictions Under Trump | Chris Miller

Описание к видео Semiconductors, Tariffs, & Chip Restrictions Under Trump | Chris Miller

In Episode 388 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with semiconductor expert Chris Miller about the state and future of the semiconductor industry in the context of Trump’s 2024 U.S. electoral victory, with all its implications for industrial policy, defense spending, tariffs, export controls, trade wars, and much more.

This conversation is a deep-dive into the semiconductor supply chain. Kofinas and Miller discuss how money is currently being allocated under the CHIPS and Science Act, the progress being made in domestic U.S. semiconductor fabrication, the challenges facing TSMC’s Arizona facility, and the troubles at Intel.

They also take a hard look at the outcomes resulting from the U.S. semiconductor export and end-use controls implemented against China, how effective or ineffective they’ve been, and ways to improve them. They also assess China’s own efforts at building out its domestic chip ecosystem and some of the loopholes that Chinese companies are systematically exploiting in order to become fully independent of and eventually overtake Western chipmakers and equipment manufacturers. They discuss the three largest limiting factors to scaling AI data centers, the national security threat posed by Chinese companies leapfrogging their U.S. competitors in the race toward AGI, and much more.

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00:00:00 Intro

00:02:08 Impact of a Trump 2.0 Administration

00:06:15 Who Will Lead Trump’s New Industrial Policy

00:07:32 How Much Is China Investing in Chips vs. Western Countries

00:11:00 Chinese Investments Having Chilling Effect

00:15:12 Are We Going To See Blanket Chip Bans?

00:16:53 Risk of China Dominating the Lagging Edge

00:18:55 If Existing Trends Continue, China Will Dominate Lagging Edge

00:20:01 China AGI vs. Nuclear Bomb

00:23:08 Public-Private Cooperation over AI

00:26:40 How Are Export Controls Going?

00:29:26 The Race Toward AGI: Who Has the Advantage?

00:35:05 AI Datacenter Clustering

00:37:59 Energy Regulations & Datacenter Buildout

00:45:08 How China is Evading Sanctions

00:48:19 Topics for the Second Hour


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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas

Episode Recorded on 11/06/2024

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