LPWAN Part 3. The Evolution of LPWANs: Market Trends from Past to Future.

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Cellular (2G, 3G, LTE & 5G) are too expensive for IoT applications.

Developers started developing their own networks in the unlicensed
spectrum.

LPWAN shows that it is able to connect sensors and controllers to the
internet without the use of WiFi or cellular.

LPWAN is threatening the licensed cellular operators.

LPWAN movement began with Sigfox and then LoRaWAN came onto the scene. Now the cellular carriers are offering their own IoT connectivity options via LTE-M and NB-IoT to counter them.

There are several wireless connectivity options for Internet of Things (IoT), from Wi-Fi and Bluetooth to SigFox, LTE CAT-M1 and RPMA. However two are showing signs they will dominate the market. NB-IoT and LoRaWAN will account for 87% of all LPWAN connections by 2028. These two wireless technologies operate with more 1) power-efficiently, meaning they extend battery life and are able to work with a 2) larger number of connected devices over a wider area.

One of the major risks to LPWANs are actually among themselves. In LPWAN, there are actually 2 divisions, 1) Licensed LPWANs (NB-IoT & LTE-M) and 2) Unlicensed LPWANs. (LoRaWAN & Sigfox)

LTE-M & NB-IoT, which are cellular standards have a slight advantage as they are being pushed by various industry incumbents like Qualcomm and Nokia. Major cellular operators like AT&T and Verizon will also be keen to upgrade cellular software on their networks and deploy this kind of network.
By reframing the GSM frequencies for voice in use today — and without needing any additional hardware — cellular companies can service narrowband applications.

Cellular Service providers will most likely market LTE-M to large MNCs companies who use the cellular for mobile data and voice services. This is because the cell providers are already picking up millions dollar for handset contracts, they have this opportunity to offer low-end data services for a very attractive price to have some market share.

But this does not mean that companies in the unlicensed LPWAN space are doomed — it just means they need to think ahead about new strategies. Ideally, they must try to provide more value than just transport of data. If LoRaWAN Alliance members and customers of Sigfox can come up with very targeted applications, they won’t be displaced by LTE-M opportunities.