Anthony Albanese's significant immigration shortcomings have been revealed, despite Labor's commitment to decrease the number of new arrivals.
Australia's immigration rates are projected to rise beyond earlier expectations, raising doubts about Labor's pledge to curb population growth. The Treasury's Midyear Economic and Fiscal Outlook estimates that 340,000 migrants will arrive in Australia in 2024-25 amid a housing crisis, which is notably higher than the 260,000 projected for this financial year in the May Budget.
The Treasury indicated that while departures are expected to increase in 2024-25, the pace will be slower than initially forecasted in the Budget. However, these revised estimates may still be inaccurate, as 448,090 migrants arrived in Australia on a permanent and long term basis in the year leading up to October. This net figure, after accounting for departures, is closer to the record high intake of 548,800 recorded in the year ending September 2023 and exceeds the 445,600 forecast for 2023-24.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers attributed the higher than expected immigration numbers to a lower than anticipated rate of permanent departures from Australia. He noted that while arrivals have aligned closely with Treasury predictions, departures have lagged behind. "People are staying longer, which has resulted in a slower decline in numbers," he explained.
The May Budget had estimated 395,000 arrivals for the year ending June but underestimated this by 50,600 equivalent to the population of Port Macquarie on New South Wales' mid north coast. The Budget update acknowledged that while new arrivals are decreasing as expected, departures were lower than anticipated for 2023-24. The influx of international students is exacerbating rental pressures in major Australian cities.
The surge of migrants into Sydney is prompting many residents to leave Australia's most expensive city for southeast Queensland, further driving up housing prices. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver stated that the unexpected increase in immigration for 2024-25 would hinder Australia's ability to build the promised 1.2 million homes over five years. "With dwelling completions significantly below the government's target of 240,000 per year, this indicates no progress in alleviating the housing shortage this year," he remarked.
The Budget update projected 255,000 migrants arriving in 2025-26, with Treasury's December forecast remaining unchanged from May. This figure would surpass the levels seen during the mining boom in 2007, when 244,000 migrants arrived, and would be more than double the 106,425 intake of 2004, prior to the surge in immigration leading up to the 2020 pandemic. Nonetheless, Treasury anticipates that net overseas migration will slow over the next three years, predicting 225,000 arrivals in both 2026-27 and 2027-28. "Net overseas migration peaked in 2022-23 and is expected to decline in the future," it stated.
Australia's population now stands at 27.2 million, just six years after surpassing 25 million. Treasury has a history of inaccurate predictions, as its first Intergenerational Report in 2002 projected that the 25 million mark would not be reached until 2042. Its forecasts have consistently underestimated population growth driven by immigration, as recorded by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
These figures were released shortly after Jennifer Westacott, a former head of the Business Council of Australia who supported high immigration, was appointed to the Reserve Bank board.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers commented, "People are just staying longer. We account for that, and we still aim to manage net overseas migration down to more normal levels in a systematic and thoughtful manner, although the issue with departures is causing some delays. The spike in net overseas migration following COVID has peaked and is declining, even before the measures we've implemented take effect."#anthonyalbanese #peterdutton #BridgetMcKenzie #australiapm
Информация по комментариям в разработке