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China to Abandon U.S. Semiconductors by 2027?
Full Decoupling from America!
Why Does China Dare to Cut Off Chip Supply to the U.S.?
Why Has its Self-Sufficiency Rate Surpassed Europe and the U.S.?
In 2027, China may completely decouple from the U.S. When this news exploded like a thunderclap across the global semiconductor industry, many Western media outlets, with their habitual arrogance, sneered: China's semiconductor industry will abandon the U.S.? This sounds like a pipe dream! A look back at history reveals painful memories: In 2018, ZTE suffered a "shock therapy" from the U.S. chip supply cut-off, and its operations almost came to a standstill. In 2019, Huawei was placed on the Entity List, forcing the discontinuation of its high-end Kirin chips. At that time, more than 90% of China's high-end chips were imported from the U.S. Nvidia's A100 and H100 GPUs were the "lifeline" coveted by global AI companies. Holding these chips meant controlling the discourse on AI computing power.
However, in just a few years, China's semiconductor industry has staged a miraculous comeback. Beijing was the first to propose a strategic goal of "100% self-sufficiency" in integrated circuits. Relying on the innovation ecosystem of Zhongguancun Science City, it has built a full-chain system from basic material R&D to high-end chip design, achieving a breakthrough in the field of domestic CPU instruction set architecture. Shanghai, relying on Zhangjiang Science City, has created the "Oriental Core Harbor" industrial cluster. Through a "bidding and ranking" mechanism, it integrated over 30 key enterprises, leading to the birth of the first domestic AI chip supporting a 5nm process in the design phase, mass production of the 14nm process in the manufacturing phase, and the establishment of internationally leading wafer-level packaging standards in the packaging and testing phase, with a plan to achieve 70% domestic self-sufficiency. Guiyang, leveraging its "China's Data Valley" computing power advantage, built the national (Guizhou) hub node for an integrated computing network. Driven by data center demand, it has established a joint laboratory with domestic chip companies and announced a goal of 90% coverage of domestic chip applications by 2027. How did this seemingly impossible breakout battle go from blueprint to reality?
In reality, the semiconductor supply chain is like a precise and complex "technological food chain." Over the past few decades, under the global industrial division of labor, the U.S. has firmly occupied the top position by leveraging its technical patent barriers and ecosystem dominance. From the monopoly of ARM architecture licenses in chip design to the control of core technologies for lithography and etching machines in semiconductor manufacturing equipment and the "chokepoint" tools of EDA design software, Chinese companies have long been squeezed into the low-profit downstream assembly links, like herbivores grazing on sparse grass. In the field of AI chips, for example, Nvidia's A100 and H100 series chips are the "Wagyu beef of the semiconductor industry." With their trillions of calculations per second, they have become the standard for training global AI large models. Even if Chinese companies pay up to hundreds of thousands of dollars per card, they still face the risk of supply disruption due to export controls.
Today, China's semiconductor industry is launching a "chain-building revolution" from the bottom up. Huawei's HiSilicon, which has invested hundreds of billions in R&D over eight years, has created the Ascend series of chips, like a digital pasture built in a technological wasteland. From the breakthrough of the Kirin 9000S's 7nm process to the Ascend 910B's ability to support thousands of cards in a cluster, this independent and controllable technical path is reshaping the industrial ecosystem. Although domestic chips still lag behind international top-tier products in terms of energy efficiency and yield, like young cattle with slightly less tender meat, they can already support "digital banquets" such as the Pangu and Purple-Initial AI models through collaborative efforts from platforms like "Pengcheng Lab," enabling Chinese AI companies to completely escape the predicament of "being unable to cook without rice." What's even more noteworthy is that this domestic supply chain is forming a complete closed loop from chip design to wafer fabrication and packaging, like nurturing a complete industry chain from growing grass and raising livestock to slaughtering and processing, bringing new ecological variables to the global semiconductor industry.