Скачать или смотреть What Investors Might Expect Investing in the S&P 500 in 2025

Stock market concentration plays a huge role in shaping future returns, and right now, the S&P 500’s current valuation may be signaling trouble ahead. 📬 Sign up for Kyle's weekly newsletter, The CFO Signal: https://www.atlaswa.com/get-the-signal

*This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Looking at historical data from the past 27 years, we can see a clear pattern—when investors pay more for the market, their returns over the next decade tend to be lower. Right now, based on the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, the expected annual return over the next 10 years falls between +2% and -2%. That’s a tough reality for long-term investors.

But does this mean you should avoid the stock market altogether? Not necessarily. The S&P 500 is heavily weighted toward a small number of expensive stocks, which skews the overall valuation. If you look beyond these large-cap giants, there are plenty of opportunities in more reasonably priced assets, both in the U.S. and globally. The same principle applies across investing—pay less, and your expected return is higher; pay more, and the returns shrink. It’s simple math, and understanding this dynamic can help shape your investment decisions.

Rather than focusing on the past decade’s impressive returns, it’s critical to look ahead. What does the market’s current pricing mean for your financial future? By understanding stock market concentration and valuation trends, you can make smarter investment choices that align with your long-term investment goals.