Скачать или смотреть Sticky input prices and short supplies: What's keeping fertilizer costs high?

Fertilizer prices remain stubbornly high, even as commodity markets soften and farmers are right to question why. According to Josh Linville of StoneX, there’s no simple answer, but the global supply landscape isn’t helping.

In this one-on-one with RealAgriculture’s Shaun Haney, Linville breaks down why nitrogen, phosphate, and potash markets are all behaving differently—and why farmers should be paying close attention to global dynamics heading into 2026. “Urea is on the higher end…UAN is the worst we’ve ever seen,” says Linville, adding that anhydrous ammonia may be one of the few relative bargains this fall. “This could be a big fall run. Farmers are going to be looking for whatever route forward is the cheapest”.

But with tight supplies, uncertain demand, and high operating costs, retailers may be reluctant to stockpile product. “If we wait till the last minute, we may find out the market just wasn’t willing to put those tons in place,” says Linville. Conversations with suppliers, he says, are critical this fall to avoid logistical surprises.

Meanwhile, China has cut phosphate exports nearly in half, and European nitrogen production remains well below normal. Potash, by contrast, is “dead quiet,” with stable pricing and few disruptions for now.

Watch the full interview with Josh Linville above for detailed analysis on 2026 planning, market signals, and how global politics could impact North American input prices.


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