The Volkswagen Effect on the EURO & Prepare or NFP!

Market Volatility & Economic Outlook: RBA, VW's Restructuring & the Impact on Global Markets

In a Nutshell
Today, I’m diving into key market events, including Germany's latest GDP figures, Australia’s CPI trends, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) potential rate cuts. With the RBNZ making moves and RBA lagging, could a 25 or 50-basis point cut be on the horizon? #GlobalMarkets #RBA #GDP #EconomicOutlook

Key Developments to Watch
Germany’s GDP took a hit, reflecting broader European challenges. VW, for the first time in 87 years, is closing three German plants, slashing wages, and laying off employees—impacts likely compounded by China’s dominance in the EV market. Amid these challenges, Australia’s inflation data hints at softer consumer spending, a key focus as the RBA aims to stabilise rates. With the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data release around the corner, traders should remain vigilant. It’s a unique NFP release, preceding both U.S. elections and a pivotal Fed meeting.

Chart Insights
On the charts, the AUD/USD is showing potential for bearish movement following Australia’s recent inflation prints. With inflation hitting its lowest since 2021 and consumer behaviuor shifting, the Australian dollar may continue to face downward pressure.

U.S. Dollar & Election Influence
The upcoming U.S. election looms large, creating additional volatility in the dollar. Analysing polling market data reveals the powerful financial influence behind certain candidates, underscoring the interconnectedness of politics and market sentiment.

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Preview
NFP is on deck, the final report before U.S. elections and the Fed’s next rate decision. It’s a critical setup, especially with election uncertainty and evolving market sentiment. For traders, this report could define trends for Q4.

00:00 Intro/Disclaimer
02:52 Volkswagen Effect - plant closures and restructuring efforts
07:40 Economic Data Releases
10:57 Australian Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook AUD and the RBA
33:00 US Economic Releases, Election, and the NFP Non-Farm Payrolls
42:36 EURUSD Analysis and Outlook

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