Скачать или смотреть 🎙️ Iran War Escalation: What Happens Next?Mani Shankar Aiyar Breaks It Down | Ep. 5

On this episode of Mani Talk, veteran diplomat and former Indian Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar brings rare first-hand insight into a dramatically escalating crisis. Following US-Israeli strikes that have reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Imam Khamenei, Tehran has vowed severe revenge — raising fears of a far wider regional war.
Aiyar served in Iraq and Pakistan, and as India’s Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas he negotiated with Tehran on the Iran–Pakistan–India gas pipeline — a deal that drew intense geopolitical pressure and ultimately led to his removal from the ministry. His experience engaging directly with Iranian leaders gives him a unique vantage point on today’s rapidly shifting conflict dynamics.
In this episode, Aiyar analyzes:
• Possible pathways of escalation — direct missile exchanges, attacks on U.S. bases in Gulf states, proxy mobilisation, and broader regional flare-ups.
• Scenarios for de-escalation — diplomacy, back-channel negotiations, calibrated retaliation, and conditions for a negotiated pause.
• What the involvement of Gulf states means for the future of the conflict.
• Whether the confrontation could spread beyond the Middle East into a wider geopolitical crisis.
• The impact on India and South Asia — and what diplomatic role India must consider playing as regional tensions intensify.
He also advances a stark central argument: that what he describes as a new “axis” between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu has not merely triggered another war, but risks undoing the fragile international order constructed after two world wars that claimed over 100 million lives.
Is this the beginning of a prolonged and destabilising global confrontation — or will cooler heads steer events toward containment?
Watch Mani Shankar Aiyar break down the next steps, from battlefield dynamics to the future of the world order.



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