Скачать или смотреть The SUTRA Model for COVID-19 : Current Status and Next Steps

An informative talk about the SUTRA Model developed by Prof. M. Vidyasagar (IIT Hyderabad), Prof. Manindra Agrawal (IIT Kanpur), and Lt. Gen. Madhuri Kanitkar (Integrated Defense Staff).

The talk covers areas of
"how pandemics can be modeled",
"what unique features of COVID-19 necessitate a new type of model",
"How the SUTRA model is structured and how its parameters are estimated",
"What are the predictions for the third wave"

0:00 - Start
0:53 - Background
2:55 - The Spanish Flu
4:46 - The SIR Model and Herd Immunity
10:19 - The SIRS Models and Immunity Erosion
12:40 - The SAIR Model - Considering Asymptomatic Patients
16:52 - The COVID-19 Peculiarity
20:07 - The SUTRA Model
23:19 - Parameter Fitting from actual Data
27:12 - Phases and Phase Change
29:55 - Actual Predictions
31:37 - The US of A Ghotala
32:42 - Actual Predictions (UK)
33:13 - Projections for India - Analysis
36:41 - The Second Wave in India
39:43 - Acquired Immunity Erosion and Vaccination
42:43 - The UK Trend - Vaccination Effect
44:45 - Projections for Third Wave in India
47:47 - Maska-Chaska
48:56 - Q & A