Taiwan Contingency Scenarios and Legal Deterrence: Issues for US-Taiwan Policy

The Global Taiwan Institute (GTI) is pleased to invite you to a panel discussion, “Taiwan Contingency Scenarios and Legal Deterrence: Issues for US-Taiwan Policy.”

Taiwanese citizens have become accustomed to Chinese military aircrafts and naval vessels operating around Taiwan. Facing these aggressive tactics from China that aim at undermining peace across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan and its allies should shift from a reactive stance to a proactive one. Additionally, if China’s legal and strategic pressures remain unchecked, it may limit how Taiwan can fight back under current international law. In light of Taiwan’s international legal status, would Taiwan be allowed to have the right of self-defense? Could Taiwan allies also have the right of collective self-defense? In addition, what is the scope of self-defense as defined by international law?

This public seminar will focus on the hypothetical scenarios that could occur, such as direct attacks, military quarantine or blockade, and actions of gray zone aggression by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It will examine these scenarios within the framework of international law and assess how the United States could feasibly support Taiwan or deter potential threats from China for each circumstance. By grounding analysis in international legal norms, this public seminar and subsequent report aims to contribute a nuanced understanding of Taiwan’s international legal status within the broader context of global security. It underscores the importance of legal clarity and adherence to established frameworks in managing and potentially resolving conflicts in the Taiwan Strait.

The event will be live-streamed through YouTube beginning on Thursday, August 15 at 1:00PM EDT. Questions for the panel may either be sent by e-mail to [email protected], or through the chat function on YouTube. Please direct questions or concerns to GTI Program Manager Adrienne Wu at [email protected].