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Why Everything's On Sale: Bitcoin Leads The Market Down
December 2025 opened with violence. Bitcoin crashed below $84,000 on the first day, triggering nearly $1 billion in liquidated positions. But this wasn't just about crypto. AI stocks tumbled. Tech sold off. Everything turned red simultaneously.
Bitcoin acted as the canary in the coal mine, falling first and hardest. Why? Because it trades 24/7. It's the most liquid major asset. When institutional investors sense trouble, Bitcoin is the first thing they sell.
The Technical Warning
Bitcoin broke below its 50-week moving average near $100,000 in late November. Historically, this line separates bull markets from bear markets. Above it, optimism reigns. Below it, the long descent begins.
There's also a cyclical pattern: Bitcoin typically takes 1,500 days to go from bottom to top, then 364 days from top to bottom. The October 2025 peak occurred roughly 1,500 days after the 2022 low. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin won't bottom until October 2026.
The Macro Forces
Three massive forces converged simultaneously:
First, Japan ended three decades of free money. Interest rates rose to 2.8%, the highest in 30 years. The yen carry trade, where investors borrowed yen at zero cost to invest elsewhere, reversed. Trillions of dollars that flowed into US stocks and crypto now need to return to Japan.
Second, the Federal Reserve signaled it was done cutting rates. After reducing rates from 5.5% to 4% through 2024 and early 2025, the Fed indicated no further cuts were coming despite market expectations. With inflation still at 3%, well above the 2% target, the liquidity spigot wasn't opening wider.
Third, AI stock valuations hit reality. Companies spent hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure, but investors started questioning whether profits would justify the spending. The Magnificent Seven stocks peaked on December 17th and began making lower highs. When your market leaders stop leading, trouble follows.
The Liquidity Drought
Global liquidity tightened throughout 2025. Central bank balance sheets grew only $700 billion, a fraction of COVID-era expansion. The Fed ended quantitative tightening on December 1st but wasn't adding liquidity either, just stopping the drain.
When liquidity shrinks, the riskiest assets fall first. That's Bitcoin and altcoins. Then speculative growth stocks. Then AI companies with stretched valuations. Then broader tech. The selling cascades from highest risk to lowest until only safe havens remain attractive.
The IPO Theory
One compelling explanation: Bitcoin is experiencing its distribution phase. For the first time, early holders can exit billion-dollar positions without crashing the market. Bitcoin ETFs created deep liquidity. Galaxy Digital processed a $9 billion sale for one wallet earlier in 2025.
This isn't failure. It's maturation. A transfer from early adopters to institutions and new retail buyers. But distribution takes time, potentially a full year, during which prices grind lower or sideways.
What Comes Next
Bitcoin faces critical support at $86,000. Below that lies $83,000-$85,000, then the crucial $80,400 level. Breaking that opens the door to $66,800. On the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $97,100 to invalidate the bearish structure.
For stocks, everything depends on earnings. If profits support valuations despite tighter conditions, markets can stabilize. If growth disappoints, deeper declines await.
The certainty is this: corrections always pass. Markets cycle between fear and greed. December 2025 sits firmly in the fear phase. For long-term investors, these moments create opportunities. Not by trading frantically, but by understanding what's actually happening and having the discipline to act when others panic.
Bitcoin isn't dying. It's warning us. And those paying attention will be positioned when the tide turns.