Скачать или смотреть The Real Bubble Is Coming: Why Bitcoin Is the Purest AI Macro Trade

The core thesis: the AI build-out’s binding constraint is now power, not GPUs, and with gas turbine and transformer shortages we need hybrid solutions and grid flexibility. That pushes alpha toward utilities, grid equipment, storage, and flexible demand. I walk through the fastest-to-deploy stack (wind/solar + batteries) and why Bitcoin miners act like “virtual batteries,” monetizing off-peak power and curtailing on spikes, improving renewable project economics (ERCOT case). I also cover national-security reshoring (critical minerals, manufacturing), why small caps can catch up as AI capex diffuses, why utilities and energy can outrun consumer staples, and how agents, stablecoins, and coming tokenization expand crypto’s demand surface—one reason I still view Bitcoin as the purest AI macro trade.

CHAPTERS

0:00 Market setup — best September in 15 years; vol falls; cut odds
2:24 Sentiment & flows — retail bid vs institutional skepticism
3:22 Micron/HBM debate — linear models vs exponential AI demand
6:31 Labor cooling — quits, temp hiring, hiring plans slide
8:25 “Every job changes” — Walmart/Accenture/Amazon; value of college debate
11:25 Frontier model benchmarks — ~50% task parity; urgent AI plans
13:12 “Bubble?” vs bottlenecks — few IPOs, faster AI payback, supply limits
15:26 Capex to revenue latency shrinks; VC risk still real
16:22 Researcher view — underestimating exponential progress
18:05 Agents arrive — Anthropic 4.5, Sora 2, OpenAI Pulse; agentic commerce
20:42 Shopify/Etsy checkout in ChatGPT; who loses share?
22:22 Corporate deals (Hitachi/OpenAI), CoreWeave; Teradyne demo with Claude
27:26 Rotation case — small caps, PMIs rising; power over GPUs
29:57 “It’s all about power” — turbines, transformers, interconnects
30:56 Watt-Bit spread; turbine shortages; grid stability risk
31:59 Unique AI load; hyperscalers as quasi-utilities
32:37 Hybrid solutions — storage + demand response including Bitcoin mining
33:53 Fastest to deploy — wind/solar + batteries; flexibility is king
34:58 Bitcoin miners = “virtual batteries”; peaker plant constraints
35:47 Storage names & moves; battery ETF note
37:10 Security & reshoring; critical minerals; utilities vs staples
40:26 Russell/PMI setup; global easing cycle
40:54 Best PMI trade: Bitcoin; why BTC links AI and energy
43:18 Seasonality; network effects, stablecoins, tokenization ahead
45:17 Bitcoin as pressure valve; inflation targets, cuts with weak jobs
46:15 Miner technicals; ERCOT/Yuri; China’s policy pivot on miners
50:33 Wrap & how to use these workflows

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Power is the choke point: GPUs are available or rentable; grid capacity and flexibility are scarce.

Flex beats pure megawatts: storage + flexible loads (including Bitcoin mining) matter as much as raw generation.

Diffusion trade: alpha broadens from mega-cap compute to utilities, grid gear, storage, and small-cap suppliers.

Agents to commerce: OpenAI Pulse + Shopify/Etsy show assistants doing the shopping, pressuring ads and marketplaces.

Bitcoin = AI macro hedge: sits where compute meets energy and benefits from network, agent, and tokenization rails.