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Snowflake guidance shock: slower growth hits a high-multiple favourite

In this episode we are breaking down the move in $SNOW after it guided to slower product revenue growth for Q4, despite strong AI buzz and a big tie-up with Anthropic. The market is asking a simple question: if AI demand is so strong, why is growth nudging down while the stock is still priced for perfection?
Snowflake is now expecting product revenue growth around the high-20s percent for Q4, a step down from the previous quarter and below what many momentum traders wanted to see. Discounts on large multi-year deals may lock in customers, but they also smooth out and slow how revenue shows up.

WINNERS

Category 1 – Cloud hyperscalers and AI infrastructure
Names: $MSFT, $AMZN
Reason: Snowflake’s story still confirms that enterprise data and AI workloads are getting heavier, not lighter. Its AI usage metrics and partnership with Anthropic imply more data stored, processed and queried in the cloud over time. That is a structural tailwind for Azure and AWS as the base layer providing compute and storage for these AI-heavy workloads.

Category 2 – Data and observability peers that executed better
Names: $DDOG, $MDB
Reason: When a premium data name disappoints on guidance, capital often rotates to peers that just posted cleaner quarters at lower valuations. Recent results from Datadog and MongoDB were seen as stronger, so traders looking to stay exposed to the data and AI theme may prefer these names over paying top dollar for $SNOW.

Category 3 – Cheaper modern data infrastructure plays
Names: $CFLT, $ESTC
Reason: Confluent and Elastic both sit in the modern data pipeline and search/analytics stack, but trade on more modest multiples than Snowflake. If investors still believe in the long-term data and AI story but are nervous about paying ultra-high valuations, these names can attract flows as “value within the growth bucket.”

LOSERS

Category 1 – High-multiple AI data platforms
Names: $SNOW, $PLTR
Reason: $SNOW is the obvious loser on the day, as guidance that is merely “good” instead of “spectacular” is not enough to support a very rich multiple. That also sends a warning shot across to other AI data and analytics platforms like $PLTR, where expectations for rapid monetisation are high and any hint of slower growth can hit sentiment.

Category 2 – Expensive SaaS momentum names
Names: $CRWD, $ZS
Reason: When one flagship high-multiple software name stumbles on growth expectations, traders often de-risk across the whole expensive SaaS complex. CrowdStrike and Zscaler are not directly tied to Snowflake’s data warehousing, but they are part of the same “quality growth at any price” basket that can see sympathy selling when investors get more valuation-sensitive.

Category 3 – Usage-based software cohort
Names: $NET, $OKTA
Reason: Snowflake’s message that customer optimisation and deal structures can make usage-based revenue a little lumpy is a reminder that this model cuts both ways. Other usage or consumption-driven names like Cloudflare and Okta can see investors reassess how smooth their growth will be if customers start watching consumption more closely.

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