Скачать или смотреть What Are The Limitations Of Ensemble Forecasting? - Weather Watchdog

What Are The Limitations Of Ensemble Forecasting? In this informative video, we will discuss the limitations of ensemble forecasting in meteorology. Ensemble forecasting is a powerful tool that provides a range of possible outcomes, but it also has its challenges. We will break down the complexities involved in interpreting these forecasts, especially when compared to more straightforward deterministic forecasts. Understanding the nuances of ensemble spread is essential, as it can impact the confidence forecasters have in their predictions.

We’ll also examine how ensemble forecasts can struggle with dynamic consistency and why this can affect short-term predictions, particularly for local weather events. The sensitivity of these forecasts to new observations will be highlighted, along with the implications of thinning ensemble members. Additionally, we will touch on the difficulties associated with creating effective initial perturbations and the computational demands involved.

Finally, while ensemble forecasting can improve long-range predictions, it still requires forecasters to apply their knowledge of model physics and biases. Join us for an in-depth look at these challenges and subscribe to our channel for more engaging content on weather and climate topics.

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