Скачать или смотреть India-China Thaw: Opportunity Or Tactical Pause? || SNG Roundtable

At a StratNews Global roundtable, three leading experts on China—Jayadeva Ranade, member of the National Security Advisory Board and President of the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy; Dr. Sriparna Pathak, Professor of China Studies and founding Director of the Centre for Northeast Asian Studies at O.P. Jindal Global University; and Dr. Aravind Yelery, Associate Professor at JNU—examined the implications of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to India and what it means for the future of bilateral ties.

The visit, officially centered on border talks, also carried a strong economic undertone. With access to Western markets narrowing, China is seeking new outlets, and India—Asia’s fastest-growing major economy—represents an attractive alternative. At the same time, India remains dependent on Chinese raw materials and supply chains, despite efforts to diversify. Both sides appear to be testing the possibility of a pragmatic reset, easing some restrictions on travel, investment, and cooperation.

Yet the thaw is approached with caution. India’s experience suggests that periods of warmth have often been followed by renewed friction—whether through border tensions or diplomatic maneuvering in multilateral forums. This recurring pattern raises doubts about the durability of any rapprochement. The logic of economic engagement is clear, but trust remains fragile.

The broader geopolitical backdrop also shapes the dynamic. U.S. tariffs and shifting supply chains have created both risks and openings for emerging economies like India. While Washington reassesses its relationship with New Delhi, Russia continues to be a time-tested partner. In this environment, India has sought to maintain strategic autonomy, avoiding alignment that could limit its room for manoeuvre Engaging China may offer short-term economic gains, but overdependence carries strategic risks.

Ultimately, the panel underscored that the visit reflects tactical accommodation rather than a fundamental shift. Dialogue is preferable to confrontation, but unresolved border disputes, regional rivalries, and deep-seated mistrust ensure that ties remain precarious. The current warmth, then, is less a turning point than a pause in a rivalry that continues to shape Asia’s strategic balance.

#india #china #xijinping #modi

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