Скачать или смотреть Vietnamese Dong & Iraqi Dinar Update February 16, 2026 | VND Reference Rate 25,049 | IQD 1,310

Markets are back open after the weekend! The State Bank of Vietnam has set Monday’s reference rate at 25,049 VND/USD (vs the market at ~25,970), signaling a preference for dong strength. The VND has appreciated 1.26% year-to-date (YTD). Meanwhile, the Iraqi dinar holds steady at 1,310 IQD/USD, showing exceptional stability with only a -0.11% change over the last 12 months. This Monday update covers the significant reference rate shift, its meaning, and key factors to monitor in the week ahead.

 MONDAY DUAL UPDATE:

Vietnamese Dong:

Reference rate: 25,049 VND/USD (strong signal)
Market rate: ~25,970 VND/USD (gap indicates policy intent)
Iraqi Dinar:

1,310 IQD/USD (stability continues)
Both currencies begin the new week holding their characteristic patterns.

Reference rate vs. market rate:
We’ll explain the policy signal and what it means.

Week ahead:
Key factors to watch for both currencies.

 VIETNAMESE DONG DATA (Feb 17, 2026):

State Bank Reference Rate: 25,049 VND/USD (Monday)
Market Rate: ~25,970 VND/USD
Gap Significance: Reference rate much stronger than market
Policy Signal: The SBV wants dong appreciation
YTD Change: Up +1.26%
Monthly Change: Up +1.17%
Trading Band: Plus or minus 5% around the reference rate
 WHAT THE REFERENCE RATE GAP MEANS:
Policy Intent Explained:

With the reference at 25,049 and the market at 25,970, there’s a ~920 dong gap. The State Bank sets a daily reference, and commercial banks can trade within plus or minus 5%. A stronger reference indicates that the central bank prefers appreciation. This doesn’t force immediate market movement but creates a framework for gradual strengthening. The market may or may not follow this. Watch this week.

Why the Signal of Strength Now?

To contain import costs (inflation management)
To demonstrate monetary policy credibility
To show confidence in Vietnam’s economic fundamentals
Gradual strength helps inflation control while supporting the 10% GDP growth target with stability.
 VIETNAM FUNDAMENTALS (Unchanged):

Export Growth: Nearly 17% (2025)
FDI Growth: +11.3% (January 2026)
Tourism Growth: +18.5% (January)
January Trade Deficit: Watching February’s data
State Bank Balancing: Currency strength + growth support
Q4 2025 Growth: Strongest growth since 2007
 IRAQI DINAR DATA (Feb 17, 2026):

Market Rate: 1,310 IQD/USD (Monday)
Official Rate: 1,300 IQD/USD (unchanged)
Market Premium: ~10 dinars (under 1%)
YTD Change: Up +0.03% (essentially flat, but technically positive)
12-Month Change: Down -0.11% (exceptional stability)
Weekend Position: Held steady into Monday
 IRAQ MONDAY STABILITY:
Unchanged Fundamentals:

Reserves: $100 billion (held by the US Federal Reserve)
Oil Production: 4.6M+ barrels/day
Official Rate Anchor: 1,300 (since February 2023)
US Coordination: February 5 meeting framework
Banking Reforms: Oliver Wyman roadmap continues
World Bank: 8.9% growth forecast (post-OPEC+ quotas)
Management Approach:

Rigid stability (vs Vietnam’s flexibility)
Predictability over responsiveness
Reserve-backed anchor
Market trades near the official rate
Demonstrated policy effectiveness
 
Iraq (Rigid Stability):

Consistent official rate (1,300)
Minimal market variation
Reserve backing for credibility
Predictability is the primary goal
This week: Continuation expected
WEEK AHEAD - WHAT TO WATCH:

Vietnam:

Commercial Bank Rates: Will they move closer to the 25,049 reference rate?
Gap Persistence or Closure: Monitor market reaction
February Trade Data: Crucial after January’s deficit—will it be balanced or continue in deficit?
State Bank Rate Settings: Ongoing adjustments
Iraq:

Oil Price Movements
Banking Reform Announcements
US-Iraq Diplomatic Developments
Market Stability Continuation
Any OPEC+ Developments
 REFERENCE RATE IMPLEMENTATION WATCH:

If the market moves toward 25,049: The policy signal is being followed
If the gap persists at 25,970: Market resistance to the policy signal
This week: We will see if gradual convergence happens
Commercial Banks: How quickly will they adjust?
Daily Monitoring: Are we seeing a shift in the reference rate gap?

SOURCES USED:

State Bank of Vietnam reference rate (Feb 17, morning)
Market exchange rate data (Feb 16, 2026)
Central Bank of Iraq official rate
Export, FDI, tourism statistics
Oil production data
World Bank Iraq projections
Banking reform updates

DISCLAIMER:
This update is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The gap between reference rate and market rate is a policy signal, not a guaranteed outcome. No predictions or investment recommendations are made. Always consult qualified financial professionals.

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 Big question: Will the market follow the State Bank's 25,049 reference rate this week, or will the gap persist? What do you think drives more — central bank signals or market forces? Share your thoughts below!