What is the Delphi Method? And How to Use the Delphi Method.

The Delphi method is a structured way to pool the opinions of many experts to reach a group solution. It was developed in 1969 by the Rand Corporation to facilitate technological forecasting. It has the benefit of overcoming the bias that results from some voices being more dominant than others – by virtue either of personality or eminence.


The primary uses of the Delphi method are in forecasting and decision making. The Delphi method tends to produce robust predictions based on experience, by eliminating the wilder contributions.


However, when the past is a poor guide to the future and there is a possibility of massive and discontinuous change, the Delphi method is not suitable.
This makes it inappropriate for leading-edge projects.


Here is a model for using the Delphi method for identifying and evaluating risks.
1. Select your panel of “experts” who will work on the problem.
2. You will also need:
• a facilitator (that may be you)
• an expert to help you craft your questions (that may also be you)
• and maybe some administrative support (yup, you guessed it!)
3. Research and develop your initial set of questions, and send them to all participants.
These need to be clear and free of ambiguity and vagueness, for the best results.
It is also important that everyone gets exactly the same briefing and questions. If not, you risk introducing bias.
Ensure that as well as asking them for their ideas, you also elicit the reasoning behind their answers.
4. Analyse and tabulate the results, including the reasons, anonymously. Based on these results, prepare a second set of questions. That includes the anonymized results of the first round (including the reasoning).
5. Return the analysis and reasons, along with the new questions, to all participants.
6. Continue looping back to step 3 until little or no change occurs. Then prepare your report and assess as required.


Benefits of the Delphi Method:
- Eliminates the need for group meetings
- Alleviates some of the bias inherent in group meetings
- Participants can change their minds anonymously


Weaknesses of the Delphi Method:
- Can take a lot of time to reach a consensus
- Participants may drop out
- Not as scientific as it appears


Take care with:
- The form of the questions - which could introduce bias
- The choice and balance of your “experts” –independence and diversity are the keys to success
- Keeping your experts informed and engaged


Recommended Videos
Carefully curated video recommendations for you:
🎬 What are the Six Thinking Hats?    • What are the Six Thinking Hats? Edwar...  
🎬 Two Approaches to Solving Project Problems    • Two Approaches to Solving Project Pro...  
🎬 What is Group Think? ...and How to Prevent it    • What is Group Think? ...and How to Pr...  
🎬 It'll Never Fly: Beat Confirmation Bias    • It'll Never Fly: Beat Confirmation Bias  
🎬 What is Design Thinking? Human-centered Problem-solving    • What is Design Thinking? Human-center...  
🎬 Could You Survive on Mars? Problem-Solving    • Could You Survive on Mars? Problem-So...  


A while back, I asked Project Managers in a couple of forums what material things you need to have, to do your job as a Project Manager. They responded magnificently. I compiled their answers into a Kit list.
https://kit.co/MikeClayton/what-a-pro...
Note that the links are affiliated.

For more great Project Management videos, please subscribe to this channel:    / @onlinepmcourses  

For all our great Project Management articles and resources, please check out the OnlinePMCourses website: https://onlinepmcourses.com/

For basic Management Courses - free training hosted on YouTube, with 2 new management lessons a week, check out our sister channel, Management Courses:    / managementcourses  

For more of our Project Management videos in themed collections, join our Free Academy of Project Management: https://onlinepmcourses.com/free-acad...

#Project #ProjectManagement #DelphiMethod