Скачать или смотреть China Locked 60% of Silver Supply Inside Their Borders | COMEX Vaults Draining to Zero

The silver market just did something impossible on January 2nd, 2026. The same ounce of silver is trading at $73 in New York and $130 in Tokyo. Not a premium. Not a spread. A fracture.

This investigation traces the data from Tokyo through Dubai to New York and exposes exactly why this price gap exists, why it's widening, and what it means for the global financial system.

We verify completed transactions on Mercari Japan showing silver coins selling for ¥19,911 ($130 USD). We check APMEX in the United States where 100-ounce wholesale bars are listed at $80—$7 over the "official" COMEX spot price of $73. We document physical prices in Dubai ($115), South Korea ($97), and China ($110).

Three pricing tiers are now running simultaneously:
• Tier 1: COMEX paper price at $73
• Tier 2: US physical reality at $80
• Tier 3: Asian physical market at $97–$130

This is the definition of a broken market. And when arbitrage fails—when the most basic mechanism of price discovery stops working—it reveals the hidden architecture of the silver market.

Here's what's blocking the flow:

*Logistics bottleneck:* Armored transport, certified air freight, and secure vaulting are maxed out. Every logistics provider is booked solid through February. The physical pipeline cannot move metal fast enough to close the gap.

*Geopolitical insurance crisis:* War risk premiums from Red Sea, South China Sea, and Eastern Europe tensions have exploded. Lloyd's of London is charging rates that destroy arbitrage profits.

*Vault delays (soft default):* London traders report banks that used to process allocated bar requests in 48 hours now say two weeks. In a fractional reserve vaulting system, the metal isn't always there. They're scrambling to locate actual bars.

*China's export lockdown:* Beijing implemented a licensing system that ring-fences 60% of China's refined silver supply inside the country. Only 44 firms can export, and they must produce 80+ tons annually. Small and medium refiners are banned from exporting. It's resource nationalism disguised as regulation.

China is the world's largest manufacturer of solar panels, batteries, and electronics—all require silver. By locking domestic supply, China ensures stable industrial access while the rest of the world competes for shrinking supply at rising prices. And because COMEX spot is still $73, every ounce leaving the US is sold to China at a 50% discount. The West is hemorrhaging strategic resources below global market value.

*The core question:* If the real price is $130 in Tokyo, why is the paper price still $73 in New York?

*The answer:* Insolvency risk.

Major bullion banks went naked short—they sold more paper contracts than physical metal exists to back them. According to Office of the Comptroller of the Currency data, US banks hold billions in notional precious metals derivatives. If banks are net short 500 million ounces and price rises $60, that's a $30 billion loss—hitting tier-one capital, the emergency reserves regulators require to prevent collapse.

Every time silver approaches $80, massive sell orders appear. That's not profit-taking. That's a defense line. The banks have a pain threshold between $80–$90. If price breaks through, tier-one capital drops below regulatory minimums and regulators can seize the bank.

⚠️ *DISCLAIMER:* This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, or legal advice. Market prices and conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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