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Key Points:

Brent crude may target $100 if supply fears persist, with $75.75 seen as pivotal support

North American natural gas could rally to $4 per MMBtu if global LNG demand intensifies

S&P seen as range-bound with a bullish bias above 6600, with correction risks if breached

Geopolitical tensions are lifting risk premiums in energy and impacting global equities

Escalating conflict in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing hostilities involving Iran, remains a key concern for global markets, according to Richard Wiseman of Wiseman Consulting. Attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and renewed threats to supply routes such as the Straits of Hormuz have injected a distinct fear premium into Brent crude oil prices. Wiseman points to an unfilled gap at $75.75 a barrel in the May Brent crude oil futures and emphasises that if this level is not breached, Brent could potentially move towards $100, driven by possible supply disruptions.

Wiseman also highlights how natural gas markets have shifted. North American gas, using the Henry Hub marker, was trending towards oversupply and retesting $2.60 per MMBtu, but recent geopolitical events have contributed to upward price momentum. Should global supply tighten further and demand for LNG increase, he sees the potential for Henry Hub to break above $3.20 per MMBtu and possibly surge to $4.

Turning to equities, Wiseman states that the S&P remains in a bull market yet has been range-bound since November, trading between 6600 and 7000. He identifies 6600 as the critical support level, and while a break below could trigger a correction towards 6000, he considers a prolonged bear market unlikely unless geopolitical and inflationary pressures significantly intensify.