Скачать или смотреть Listen To Global Commoditity Market Outlook October 2024 World Bank Report Audiobook

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The October 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook by the World Bank reviews how global commodity prices have shifted amid major economic and geopolitical events. In the early 2020s, global shocks like COVID-19, high inflation, and the Ukraine war caused significant volatility in commodity prices. However, by 2024, these effects have lessened, with markets showing less synchronization due to new, commodity-specific issues like weather shocks and trade restrictions. Energy prices, particularly oil, saw fluctuations influenced by geopolitical risks and supply concerns, with Brent crude prices expected to average $80/bbl in 2024 and decline over the following two years. Natural gas and coal prices are projected to stabilize or fall as markets adjust to new supply configurations post-Ukraine war.

Agricultural prices in 2024 experienced mixed trends. While staples such as maize, soybeans, and wheat saw price decreases due to solid harvests and good weather, specific items like cocoa and coffee hit record highs because of supply disruptions. Looking forward, agricultural prices are forecasted to drop by 4% in 2025, driven by stable growing conditions, with minimal changes in 2026. Metals and precious metals had contrasting fortunes: base metals like aluminum and copper held strong on demand from the energy transition, whereas iron ore struggled due to China's weak construction sector. Gold prices surged throughout 2024, fueled by geopolitical tensions and central bank demand.

The report highlights risks such as potential conflict escalation in the Middle East, which could push energy prices higher, and climate change effects that may impact supply chains, particularly in agriculture. However, if OPEC+ unwinds its output cuts or economic activity weakens more than expected, prices could drop further. The analysis also notes that easing commodity prices can benefit global inflation control, aiding central banks in their efforts to reduce inflation, particularly in emerging markets. Yet, persistent local challenges like food insecurity remain, exacerbated by conflicts and economic shocks in specific regions.

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