Скачать или смотреть Current climate reports might have underestimated the consequences of the climate crisis

A new report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, claims that the ‘actual’ impact of anthropogenic climate change has been undermined till now. The IPCC report looked at the direct consequences of temperature rise but ignored the ‘knock-on’ effects like war, financial crisis, diseases and further calamities like hampered agricultural production.

Currently, climate models do not consider consequences of methane emissions from the thawing of the permafrost and carbon releases from droughts and forest fires in the Amazon because more research is needed in these areas. Modeling in the study shows that extreme heat, which is defined as an annual temperature of 29C or above, could affect over 2 billion people in another 50 years if emissions continue.‘Famine’, ‘extreme weather’, ‘war’ and ‘disease’, the four horsemen of the ‘climate endgame’ have been severely underestimated.

Luke Kemp, from the University of Cambridge’s Center for the Study of Existential Risk and lead author of the study says that analyzing extreme scenarios might help in their prevention and build societal resilience. In the 1980s when discussions about a ‘nuclear winter’ started post a nuclear war, it spurred disarmament efforts in the global community. The report argues that the most important consequences of temperatures breaching 3 degree celsius have been under examined, with limited quantitative data. Global ‘catastrophic risk’ also accounts for the probability of losing 25% of the global population and threat to food systems within a few decades.

This ‘endgame’ might be reached by the end of the century because right now, only nationally determined contributions(NDCs) are not enough to slow down global warming. NDCs are not being adhered to right now but even if they are, temperatures might breach 2.4 degree celsius.

The COVID pandemic has underlined the importance of being prepared for rare but high impact global risks. While the report might sound ‘alarmist’ in nature, it might be worth considering this catastrophic picture portrayed if it were to come alive.