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Welcome to Roman Election Forecasting! This is my prediction for the Wisconsin Assembly as of August 19, 2024. Here's an explanation of my forecast categories (safe, likely, lean, and tilt/tossup):

In terms of probability, safe means the candidate has over a 99% chance of winning, likely is 85-99%, lean is 60-85%, and tilt is within 60%; races handicapped as tilt are effectively tossups, meaning my confidence in whichever candidate wins is very low and subject to fluctuations as we get further into election season. These ratings usually also have associated margins of victory, but because of the complicated nature of this election and the fact that including extra candidates on average leads to smaller margins of victory, there are no associated margins for this prediction.

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