Predictive Coding: Why Our Brain Is Constantly Predicting The Future

Predictive coding is an influential theory in psychology and neuroscience that explains how our brain learns from mistakes.

Our brain constantly makes predictions about the future. Then, incoming information (sensory or cognitive) is compared to this prediction. If there is a mismatch between actual information and the prediction, this leads to a prediction error.

Prediction errors tell our brain that our prediction was inaccurate and it will try to adjust the prediction for the next time. Such updating of prediction models is learning. One can learn from mistakes, or from feedback.

Brain signals such as the error-related negativity and feedback related negativity (ERN and FRN) reflect prediction error processing in the brain. Signals like the error positivity (Pe) reflect updating of prediction models.

References:
Huang, Y., & Rao, R. P. N. (2011). Predictive coding. Wiley interdisciplinary reviews. Cognitive science, 2(5), 580–593. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcs.142

Senderecka, M., Matyjek, M., Kroczek, B., & Ociepka, M. (2021). Socially Induced Negative Emotions Elicit Neural Activity in the Mentalizing Network in a Subsequent Inhibitory Task. Neuroscience, 470, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuroscienc...

Ullsperger, M., Fischer, A. G., Nigbur, R., & Endrass, T. (2014). Neural mechanisms and temporal dynamics of performance monitoring. Trends in cognitive sciences, 18(5), 259–267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2014.0...

Yeung, N., Botvinick, M. M., & Cohen, J. D. (2004). The neural basis of error detection: conflict monitoring and the error-related negativity. Psychological review, 111(4), 931–959. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.111...

Produced and narrated by: Miles Wischnewski

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