Benyamin Poghosyan - New Leaders, Talks, US Defense Adv to Armenia, Midyear | Ep 347 - July 21, 2024

ANN Groong Week in Review - July 21, 2024

Topics:
* New Leadership Coming to Many Countries
* Armenian Azerbaijani Negotiations
* Permanent US Defense Attaché to Armenia
* Mid-year Review of our 2024 Predictions


Guest:
* Benyamin Poghosyan - TW/@Benyamin_Poghos

Hosts:
* Hovik Manucharyan - TW/@HovikYerevan
* Asbed Bedrossian - TW/@qubriq

00:00:00 Intro to show with Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan
00:00:25 Elections around the world
00:00:38 How will a potential Trump presidency affect Armenia and the Caucasus?
00:07:46 On Trump's pick for VP - JD Vance
00:10:38 Georgian Dream - Will the country tilt west, or not?
00:18:25 Impact on Armenia
00:20:51 How are regional countries relating to Georgia's parliamentary elections: Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkey?
00:23:28 Georgia's push towards China
00:25:22 What is the purpose of Azerbaijan's parliamentary elections?
00:26:35 What sort of a milestone is COP29 for Azerbaijan and Armenia?
00:28:12 Azerbaijan undermining US efforts with two preconditions
00:30:25 What about a framework agreement or agreement in principle, and the Belfast model?
00:32:23 What would a statement on principles give to Armenia?
00:34:09 Key question for the west: agreement must lead to Armenia-Turkey border opening
00:34:43 Has the US clearly stipulated to ALiyev its requirement to greenlight Erdogan for Normalization?
00:35:40 Who torpedoed the Pashinyan/Aliyev summit in Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire, UK?
00:41:28 What's the status of negotiations, and what happened to the border delimitation process?
00:42:36 Azeri intentions are clear: they will continue to occupy Armenia proper
00:45:18 Does the EU have any leverage over Azerbaijan?
00:48:07 The EU has replaced Toivo Klaar with Magdalena Grono. Who is she?
00:50:47 What "tough compromises" is the US State Department expecting from Armenia and Azerbaijan?
00:54:19 What leverage does the US have over Azerbaijan to make compromises?
00:56:15 Could the 3+3 platform provide a venue for bringing Aliyev to the table or at least deter him from more war?
00:59:35 What's the significance of the US Defense Advisor/Attache posting in the Armenian MoD?
01:03:44 Is there precedent for big powers stationing advisers inside foreign government ministries?
01:05:24 Is Moscow's blocking of Armenian Agri exports a political message?
01:06:27 Mid-year review of our 2024 predictions
01:07:00 Benyamin's 2024 high, medium, and low predictions.
01:08:08 Hovik's high, medium, and low probability predictions.
01:11:16 Asbed's high, medium, and low probability predictions.
01:16:15 Personal thoughts from the participants
01:16:23 Benyamin - Let's be more sober and less emotional about all the wild promises we're hearing like "EU Membership", etc.
01:17:34 About Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan
01:17:50 Final pledge: GIVE to Groong! Become a SUSTAINING member.


Episode 347 | Recorded: July 22, 2024
https://podcasts.groong.org/347