Quiet on Sunday; Eyes on potential Gulf tropical system

Your Mobile - Pensacola - Gulf Coast Area Weather Forecast for September 06, 2024

— Gulf Disturbance - Tropical Impacts - Heavy Rain —

A cold front has worked its way across a portion of our area Saturday. This will bring a dry and cooler feel on Sunday morning for our inland communities, while our coastal areas still deal with clouds, rain, and mild conditions. This front will dissipate over our area over the next day or so, before moisture returns to the entire area beginning Monday. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the tropics as a system expected to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico will likely move north and impact Texas and Louisiana. On the periphery of this system, abundant moisture will be pushed ashore, and rain chances will increase across the Gulf Coast midweek.

TROPICS:

We are closely watching a tropical disturbance (Invest 91-L) in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is not expected to come directly at the FOX10 viewing area. However, tropical moisture associated with this system will bring higher rain chances Wednesday–Friday of the upcoming week.

This system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days. It will continue to organize and move northward toward the Texas coast. Most forecast models show a tropical depression or storm hugging the coast Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving inland over southwestern Louisiana on Wednesday night or Thursday. This track lines up with the placement of a mid/upper-level high-pressure system that will be centered over the southeastern Gulf. The flow around this high will be the main steering current for the storm.

While there is some limited agreement in the forecast models with this solution, other possibilities are on the table:

- We cannot rule out this system becoming a minimal hurricane
- A solution that moves the storm inland over Texas is still possible
- A solution where the storm moves over open waters of the Gulf and tracks towards south-central Louisiana is still possible

It's too early to know the exact details of track and intensity, especially because we do not have a defined center of circulation yet. With this in mind, residents all along the western Gulf Coast from Texas to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system over the next few days. Regardless of development, these areas will experience very heavy rain and breezy conditions Tuesday–Thursday.

Other portions of the Gulf Coast will also see impacts from this storm. Abundant moisture associated with the tropical disturbance, and a stalled front over the northern Gulf, will all push inland with the system over the next few days. This means significant rainfall is likely from Texas to Florida, with highest totals (5–10 inches) along the immediate coast.

Locally, our rain chances will be highest on Thursday. Current projections show around 7 inches of rain at our beaches, and 2–4 inches inland over the next week. Since our pattern has been relatively dry over the past month, this will be some very beneficial rain, and flooding will be limited. That being said, we will still need to be aware of the flash flooding potential if rain bands happen to move over the same area for a long period of time.

Other than the heavy rain impacts, surf at our beaches will become high midweek. We have a HIGH RISK of rip currents beginning Wednesday. Offshore, seas of 3–5 feet will be possible beginning Wednesday and lasting through Thursday.

Stay with FOX10 for regular updates on this system. Follow the STORMtracker Team on social media for even more weather information.

#Forecast #GulfCoast #91L

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FOX10 METEOROLOGIST NICHOLAS HERBOSO:

Nicholas Herboso is the newest member of the FOX10 StormTracker Team. He comes to FOX10 from the University of South Alabama, where he studied broadcast meteorology and minored in music. Nicholas is a native of Fairhope, AL, and is proud to call the Gulf Coast home. He was motivated to pursue a career in weather broadcasting after living through multiple hurricanes on the Gulf Coast and watching the coverage from local meteorologists like John Edd Thompson, especially after watching their coverage of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. Past extreme weather events got Nicholas interested in weather early on. For him, weather is a passion that he is excited to share with viewers.

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FOLLOW NICHOLAS:
Twitter -   / knbhwx  

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Email - [email protected]

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