Paul Vădan | Fellow Talk

ΚΑΙΡΟΝ ΓΝΩΘΙ· The Ancient Practice of Contingency Planning

In my talk I will examine how Hellenistic communities understood and applied contingency planning by conceptually pairing chance (tychē) with opportunity (kairos). Specifically, I will argue that while decision-makers recognized the inherently uncertain character of the future, they resorted to deliberative expertise to better “read” the circumstances of a crisis and identify the opportune moment to respond to violent threats (expressed as kairos). I will particularly focus on how ancient historians, philosophers, and medical writers understood the ability to perceive kairos as a technical skill that could be learned, refined, and exercised. I will also detail some of the strategies that ancient communities employed to formulate “known unknowns” and to develop crisis responses; some of these involved the building of collective resilience, appeals to the divine, and the promotion of technical manuals. The talk will highlight some of my work in progress, as I am currently in the process of restructuring and rewriting my book chapter on ancient contingency planning.


About the Speaker

Paul Vădan earned his Ph.D. in Classics from the University of Chicago. He also holds B.A. and M.A. degrees in Classical Studies from McGill University. His research interests examine ancient risk and migration, working at the interface of classics, behavioral economics, and decision theory. From 2018 to 2020 he worked as a Visiting Assistant Professor of Classics and Humanities at Reed College. Recently, he was Sapere Aude Postdoctoral Researcher at the Saxo Institute, University of Copenhagen. As part of the Migrants and Membership Regimes in the Ancient Greek World research project, Paul has published on state violence against migrants in the ancient Mediterranean space. At the CHS, Paul is completing his first book project entitled The Art of Risk in Ancient Greek Thought and Practice, exploring how ancient Greek decision-makers conceptualized the modern concept of “risk” and detailing the risk management and mitigation strategies they used to respond to violent threats. The book delves into questions about ancient Greek futurity and cognition, outlining how ancient Greek thinkers sought to render an uncertain future more predictable.