Russia’s border provocations signal to Estonia that it will be next after Ukraine

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On the border with Estonia, Russians are trying to show that the Baltic states are under the sights and could be next. They have started to organize large-scale provocations, according to The Telegraph.

For example, a blimp was recently spotted on the Russian-Estonian border, which was initially ignored by Estonia. However, the next day, Russia escalated and painted the letter Z on the blimp, associated with Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

According to the director-general of the Estonian police Egert Belitsev, Russians organize provocations of this kind almost every week.

"It was intentionally made visible to everyone, to say: We are watching you," Belitsev said.

According to Estonian border guards, tensions on the border with Russia have increased dramatically in recent months. Russia has intensified actions such as protests against the West, attempts to smuggle weapons parts, and jamming GPS signals. Russia has been sending waves of migrants from Asia across the border and ominous pranks with aerial devices like the one mentioned above.

"Two years ago we had 18 border incidents and this year we had 96," Belitsev said.

Narva, which sits across the Narva River from Russia, has experienced a sharp rise in border incidents in recent months. Estonian border forces have reported Russian guards removing border markers, Russian aircraft performing risky stunts, and attempts to smuggle weapons parts across the border.

Located on NATO’s eastern border, Estonia has become the constant target of hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia – with the Kremlin sending in surveillance blimps on an almost weekly basis and removing Estonian border infrastructure in the dead of night.

“Everything that is on the other side of the border, I wouldn’t use [the term] ‘free world’ to describe that,” says Egert Belitsev, director general of the Estonian border force.

Relations between Estonia and Russia have deteriorated amid the war in Ukraine. Estonia actively supports Ukraine, providing aid and calling for tougher sanctions against Russia. Tallinn has also increased defense spending due to threats to the Baltic region.

Russia responded with anti-Estonian rhetoric, expulsion of diplomats, and suspension of transit and economic cooperation agreements. Tensions have escalated over border demarcation, the dismantling of Soviet monuments, and Estonia's support for Ukraine's accession to NATO.

On August 8, Estonia introduced enhanced customs control at all border crossings with Russia - Narva, Luhamaa, and Koidula. The innovations are aimed at preventing sanctioned goods from entering Russia.
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