How Much? Surface Warming Caused by Stratospheric Cooling |Manabe's Fig for His Nobel Prize 240518

There is a very important figure published by Manabe and Wetherald in 1967. It was this figure that enabled Manabe to win the Nobel Physics Prize in 2021. Here, I will quantitatively evaluate the surface warming based on this figure.

Their computational results based on the US standard atmosphere temperature distribution at different CO2 concentrations. They predicted that the surface temperature will increase by 1.3K in the absence of postive water feedback. Otherwise the surface warming would be 2.3 K, almost doubled.

So far, only one relevant observsational result has been found as a close evidence for their predictions over 50 years ago, although the measured surface mean temperature anormalies indicate the surface temperature is slowly rising.

In this talk, a newly proposed formula for calculating the outgoing longwave radiation at different atltitudes is used to evaluate the direct consequences of the caluculated stratospheric cooling by Manabe and Wetherald.

The results are preliminary and the investigation is ongoing. Hopefully, you could make comments on this talk.