Скачать или смотреть Markets Face a Goldilocks Test… or a Government Shutdown | Express Lane (30 Sept 2025)

(30 September 2025) Last week US equities edged lower by about 30bps as positive economic data was met with cautious Fed speak and fears of a US government funding shutdown.

🟢 Green Light
Economic data coming out of the US last week was strong, and points to a possible “goldilocks” scenario for the Fed as they resume their rate cut cycle. US’s Q2 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.8% quarter over quarter, that’s the fastest pace since 2023, and unemployment claims also came in much lower than forecast at 218k vs 233k expected.

🟡 Yellow Light
The ABS’s monthly CPI indicator came out hotter than expected at 3% year over year – teetering on the edge of the RBA’s target inflation range. That’s severely dampened the odds of rate cuts for the rest of this year, with money markets giving it a 60% chance we’ll get just 1 more cut by Jan 2026.

🔴 Red Light
A US government shutdown this week seems likely as the congress has yet to reach consensus on a temporary funding bill. Historically, government funding shutdowns haven’t had a massive impact on markets, but this time investors are worried that critical economic data from the BLS may be delayed if the agencies remain unfunded for too long. That leaves the Fed flying blind at a pretty critical time for the US economy

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