Modeling Climate Extremes for Impact Assessment

Intense and frequent climate extremes are causing unprecedented impacts on human and natural systems. For instance, extreme heat events are resulting in enormous stress on infrastructure such as the electric grid, human health impacts, and fueling wildfires. The impacts associated with climate extremes will likely continue to worsen with the projected increase in their severity in a warming climate. The extent and severity of these impacts make it crucial to understand their characteristics in historical and future climate. Earth system modeling tools are generally used to understand the characteristics of these climate extremes at global, national, and regional scales. This presentation will focus on the use of General Climate Models (GCMs), regional climate downscaling and data analysis tools to evaluate climate extremes in historical and future periods over the conterminous United States. Specifically, the focus will be on the development of high-resolution climate projections based on the latest suite of sixth Phase of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) GCMs that can be subsequently used to understand the climate extremes and associated regional scale impacts.

Presented by: IBPSA-USA's Research Committee featuring Deeksha Rastogi (Oak Ridge National Laboratory).

Date: Mar 30, 2023

Datasets/Resources:

Kao, S. C., Ashfaq, M., Rastogi, D., Gangrade, S. (2022) CMIP6-based Multi-model Hydroclimate Projection over the Conterminous US. HydroSource. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21951/SWA9505V3/18...

Bass, B., J. New, D. Rastogi, S.-C. Kao (2022) Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) US Weather Files for Building Simulation (1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6939750

Jones, A., Rastogi, D., Vahmani P., Stansfield A., Reed K, Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., Rice, J.S., (2022), IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.57931/1885756.

Publications:
Kao, S. C., Ashfaq, M., Rastogi, D., Gangrade, S., Uria Martinez, R., Fernandez, A., ... & Zhao, G. (2022). The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower (No. ORNL/TM-2021/2278). Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States).

Rastogi, D., Kao, S. C., & Ashfaq, M. (2022). How may the choice of downscaling techniques and meteorological reference observations affect future hydroclimate projections? Earth's Future, 8(10), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002734

Ashfaq, M., Rastogi, D., Kitson, J., Abid, M. A., & Kao, S. C. (2022). Evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs over the CONUS for downscaling studies. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(21), e2022JD036659.

Jones A. D., Rastogi D., Vahmani P., Stansfield A. M., Reed K. A., Thurber T., Ullrich P. A., Rice J. Continental United States climate projections based on thermodynamic modification of historical weather, Nature Scientific Data, In Review

Srivastava, A. K., Ullrich, P. A., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Jones, A., and Grotjahn, R.: Assessment of WRF (v 4.2.1) dynamically downscaled precipitation on subdaily and daily timescales over CONUS, Geoscientific Model Development (GMD), In Review

IBPSA-USA is the United States regional affiliate of the International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA). The mission of IBPSA-USA is to advance and promote the science of building simulation in order to improve the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of new and existing buildings in the United States.

Learn more about IBPSA-US:
Twitter:   / ibpsa_usa  
LinkedIn:   / ibps.  .
Facebook:   / ibpsausa  
Website: https://www.ibpsa.us/

If you love watching videos like this one, become an IBPSA-US Member to support our mission to advance and promote the science of building simulation: https://www.ibpsa.us/join

The IBPSA-US channel features talks, discussion, and events from the world's leading thinkers and doers in the building performance simulation world. Subscribe to our channel for more videos.

#buildingperformance #buildingsimulation #ibpsausa