Скачать или смотреть Changing climate driving large shifts in vegetation zones in Oregon

Dr. Yegorova presents on large changes possible for Oregon’s future forests. Dr. Yegorova and the research team used climate analog-based impact models and a co-production process with land managers to project future vegetation changes for Oregon (2041–2070, RCP 8.5) at a management-relevant spatial resolution (270-m). They found that analog-based models performed well at reproducing landscape-level vegetation composition, and moderately well at reproducing vegetation at the pixel level. Their results suggest that 64% of the study area will experience future climate conditions that support different potential natural vegetation types and 59% will experience climates corresponding with different potential plant physiognomic types, compared to reference-period conditions. The research team projects a 60% reduction of mesic conifer-dominated forests with transitions to mixed evergreen forest types. They also project losses to dry forests, cold forests and parklands, with commensurate expansions of shrublands, grasslands, and geographic redistribution of dry forest types.

The presentation also provides guidance for using future vegetation projections and uncertainty outputs in management decisions using the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) adaptation framework. Read the paper at: https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2025.163...