How ensemble prediction systems can tell us what we know (and don’t know) about the future

Will there be ice on the roads tomorrow morning? In early June the answer is easy, but there are many days throughout the year when the answer is “It’s impossible to say for sure.” Knowing tomorrow’s weather helps us plan our day better, decide which car to use for our commute and what clothes to wear; but how much can we trust the forecast? If we knew the degree of certainty in the forecast; how satisfied would we be at 5pm with our 7 am choices?

Ensemble prediction systems produce multiple forecasts that allow for a higher degree of certainty in our predictions and improve forecasts of many high impact events like hurricanes, droughts and floods, sea ice melting, and even global warming. These systems are generated using ensemble data assimilation that combines computer forecasts with observations from balloons, planes, satellites, and radar. In this NCAR Explorer Series Lecture, NCAR scientists Drs. Moha Gharamti and Jeff Anderson will demonstrate how ensemble prediction systems work and discuss several examples including Florida’s recent catastrophic flooding events due to Hurricane Ian.

Learn more: https://edec.ucar.edu/events/ensemble...