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🌩️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – WEDNESDAY, MARCH 4, 2026 (20:00Z Update)
SPC Risk Level: SLIGHT (Level 2 of 5)
Valid through 7 AM CST Thursday

📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🟡 SLIGHT Risk: Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Arlington, TX, Plano, TX, Garland, TX
🟢 MARGINAL Risk: Tulsa, OK, St. Louis, MO, Cincinnati, OH, Louisville, KY, Lexington-Fayette, KY

🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🟤 5% Tornado Risk: Russellville, AR, Harrison, AR, Mountain Home, AR, West Plains, MO
🟢 2% Tornado Risk: Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Arlington, TX, Plano, TX, Garland, TX

What the Percentages Mean
A 5% tornado risk means there is roughly a 1 in 20 chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of a point. This represents a low-end but meaningful tornado threat, especially where storms interact with boundaries across northern Arkansas into southern Missouri.

📝 Overview
A corridor of isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms is expected from north-central Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley through tonight.

A weak surface front and surface low across the Ozarks will interact with increasing Gulf moisture and moderate instability, while a belt of stronger winds aloft spreads across the region. This environment should support organized thunderstorms capable of large hail and localized damaging winds, with a couple tornadoes possible, particularly near the Arkansas–Missouri border region.

Storm coverage may become somewhat messy due to ongoing convection and outflow boundaries, but periodic supercells and clusters could still develop along and ahead of the front through the evening and overnight hours.

⛈️ Hazards Include

🧊 Large hail (primary severe threat with stronger storms)
💨 Localized damaging wind gusts
🌪️ A couple of tornadoes possible, mainly across northern Arkansas into southern Missouri

🕓 Timeline
3–6 PM CST: Storms begin developing near the surface front from eastern OK into the Ozarks
6–10 PM CST: Peak severe window with supercells and clusters producing hail and localized wind damage
10 PM – 3 AM CST: Storms spread east toward the Lower Ohio Valley with continued isolated severe risk

📌 Regional Notes
🟡 North Texas: Greater instability may allow a few stronger storms capable of hail and wind
🟤 Northern AR / Southern MO: Best overlap of low-level shear and instability — greatest chance for a brief tornado
🟢 Lower Ohio Valley: Some storms may persist overnight with isolated hail or wind threats

⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware

Residents from north Texas through Arkansas and into southern Missouri should monitor weather conditions this evening. While storms will be scattered, any stronger storm could quickly produce large hail or damaging winds, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
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In-Vehicle
Driver, Man-of-Action - @ReedTimmerWx
Navigator, Man-of-Music - @localmanweatherofficial
Engineer, Man-of-Iron - @willclay25

Studio
Guy in the corner - @brianvotoole, but he doesn't really post anything. he's just laying in the cut, you know?


Thanks United Cajun Navy - https://unitedcajunnavy.org/
And Thanks to RED EARTH TECH! - https://www.red-earth.tech/