Скачать или смотреть Boom or Time Bomb? 2026 AI Market Outlook

Market Trends & Bubble Speculation
• #AIBubble – While comparisons are frequently made to the 1999 dot-com era, analysts suggest the current situation is different because Big Tech valuations remain more grounded, with many firms having price-to-earnings (PE) multiples in the 20s or 30s rather than the triple-digit multiples seen in the late 90s,,.
• #MarketVolatility – Experts warn investors to expect bouts of volatility in 2026, particularly when high expectations for AI performance are not decisively exceeded,.
• #DotComComparison – Unlike the speculative 1999 bubble where firms like Cisco and Oracle traded at multiples as high as 200, the current S&P 500 average PE ratio sits around 30 as of late 2025.
Major Industry Players
• #BigTech – Companies like Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon are expected to collectively spend over US$400 billion on capital expenditure in their upcoming financial year, primarily for AI infrastructure.
• #OpenAI – As a central figure in the AI narrative, OpenAI faces scrutiny for its high cash burn, with reports suggesting it may lose US$115 billion until 2029 before achieving profitability,.
• #Nvidia – Despite trading at higher PE multiples (high 40s to 50s), Nvidia ended its fiscal 2025 with US$43 billion in cash and essentially no net debt, providing a significant cushion against market shifts,.
Infrastructure & Adoption
• #DataCenters – Demand for compute infrastructure remains high as AI's share of the data center market is forecast to double to 30% over the next two years,.
• #EnterpriseAI – McKinsey reports that as of 2025, 68% of organizations are piloting, scaling, or have fully scaled AI, moving the technology into real-world workflows like diagnostic imaging and programmatic media buying,.
• #AgenticAI – Analysts believe the "next leap" in growth could come from agentic AI, even as the performance of some recent traditional models has stalled.
Economics & Regional Focus
• #SingaporeInvestors – Retail investors in Singapore are notably active in US tech stocks and must navigate a landscape where productivity gains may benefit capital more than labor,.
• #InterestRates – Monetary policy continues to influence the market; the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% in late 2025, with expectations for further cuts to boost growth in 2026.
• #CapEx – The massive capital expenditure from cash-rich tech giants is a primary driver of the current AI boom, supported by over US$200 billion in combined cash reserves.
To understand the AI market’s current state, think of it like building a massive high-speed rail network: while the initial costs to lay tracks (data centers) and build engines (models) are astronomical and profit hasn't fully arrived yet, the fact that cities (enterprises) are already redesigning their infrastructure to connect to it suggests the tracks are being built for a real and growing demand, not just for show.