Russia's Kharkiv Offensive and Leadership Purge - Shoigu's removal, Kharkiv & What next for Ukraine?

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The last few weeks have arguably been a period of change for the war in Ukraine, both on and off the battlefield. In Moscow, long serving Defence Minister Shoigu has been removed from that post, while a number of Russian Generals and senior figures have been arrested or otherwise removed.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia has escalated the previously quiet Kharkiv front, edging slightly closer to Ukraine's second city.

In this episode, I want to unpack some of the current political and economic context and ask what may be next for a Russia war effort that is now 'under new management'

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Caveats, Comments and Corrections:

All normal caveats and disclaimers apply

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes

Reading and Sources:

Territorial control maps per https://deepstatemap.live/

Thanks and credit to @naalsio26 for his geolocation and tabulation of VC losses by region and to warmapper.org for their fortification mapping work

TASS confirming Lapin's appointment to the Leningrad military district
https://tass.com/defense/1788573

Reporting on the build-up towards the recent offensive:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

https://kyivindependent.com/military-...

Reminder of Popov's previous criticism of Russian military leadership
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

"The Russians simply walked in"
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72...

Ukrainian raids into Belgorod - May 2023
https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

Ukraine Border Guard warning regarding the Sumy region
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/33017

Zelensky on shell supply
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-...

Reporting on the Recent offensive
https://kyivindependent.com/explainer...

*due to late upload this list will be extended on 27/05*

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:59 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:56 — The Russian Political Context
00:14:01 — The Military Context
00:17:17 — A Quiet Front
00:19:34 — Buildup And Operations
00:32:21 — The Operation Unfolds
00:37:07 — Purpose And Value
00:44:19 — Observations - Russia
00:54:10 — Observations & Recriminations - Ukraine
01:00:56 — What Next?
01:03:04 — Channel Update