Скачать или смотреть If there is a diplomatic failure with Iran, military action is possible : Analysis

Richard Schmierer, former US ambassador to Oman and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, joins Al Jazeera’s live from Washington, DC. He said that while the US seeks diplomatic solutions with Iran, military action remains a possibility if negotiations fail, emphasising the need for verifiable progress.

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Transcript:
And joining us now from Washington DC is Richard Schmer. He's a former US ambassador to Oman and former deputy assistant secretary of state for Neareastern affairs. Thank you so much for being on the program ambassador. So I presume that you watched the state of the union address last night where the president said uh he said my preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. So when you watched the speech were you actually convinced that he is that his preference is diplomacy? Well, I think what he is trying to do and I think your other commenters made the same point is bring both uh an element of pressure through the military buildup but also a willingness and and an opportunity uh to use diplomacy to try to resolve the issue. uh and so yes, tomorrow's discussions in Geneva will be very important uh because I think we will actually need to see some real progress in order to get the current level of tension to be reduced. But it does look like from reports that both delegations are being given a certain amount of flexibility and that maybe there are compromises out there uh that they might be able to get to tomorrow. So for that reason I remain optimistic but I don't think we should discount the possibility that if there is really a diplomatic failure, President Trump might tried to take the other course and that I think would be unfortunate for everyone. So economic concerns last night in the State of the Union were obviously a big part of the speech. Um, but if the president does opt for war, do you think that there's a coherent argument that he can make to the American people to say that yes, war with Iran actually is going to make your life better? Well, I think that the challenge that he faces uh is that his own supporters are probably the most adamant about having the US not get into any additional wars overseas, in particular in the Middle East. So politically uh it's his own base that he would have to try to convince that this is an urgent issue that requires military action now. And I think that's probably one deterrent for him to take that activity right now. But I think he also really believes that if Iran doesn't appear to be being forthcoming that he might have to do something. uh and maybe that something would be a limited type of military action just to convey the message that he's very serious. Again, I hope that doesn't happen, but that may be the kind of middle action that he would decide on if he doesn't see any progress in the in the negotiations. So, you may have heard a few moments ago my colleague Patty Cohane said that the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Iran is not enriching uranium at the moment. And of course, the president has made a big deal about Operation Midnight Hammer, which supposedly destroyed its nuclear uh capacity at this stage. So, I just wonder if the United States did opt for military action, what do you imagine the targets would actually be? Well, that's a good question because would it be military assets? Would it be leadership? Uh, it's hard for me to to say because I can't think that it would be specifically nuclear related or at least that there's anything nuclear related for us to try to go after. So again, it might be something symbolic. I don't think it would be intended to inflict significant casualties because I think it would be intended really to be a message as opposed to an effort to try to actually gain something militarily. But again, we certainly all hope that that doesn't happen. And in fact, as you point out, Iran currently has a hiatus in producing in enriching uranium. And Iran has stated that it is not seeking a nuclear weapon. So, it's really just a matter of getting to the point where we can verify those things and have them continue indefinitely. And that's what our diplomats tomorrow will be trying to accomplish. I want to ask you about something else that the president said in the state of the union last night. He said uh he said he wants to make he wants to make a deal with Iran. Quote, "But we haven't heard those secret words, we will never have a nuclear weapon