Скачать или смотреть BONDS SELL OFF - Bad News For Consumers

Bond yields didn’t fall this morning. They rose. After oil surged more than 7% and natural gas jumped more than 40%, the 10-year Treasury moved higher — not lower. That is not a fear trade. That is inflation being repriced.

Over the weekend, I said to watch yields. If they spiked, it would signal inflation risk returning — not recession fear. That’s exactly what happened.

Reuters reports:
• “Significantly higher oil is inflationary, just as it was when Russia invaded Ukraine,” according to Rabobank analysts.
• Economists estimate a sustained $10 rise in oil could add up to 0.2 percentage point to annual U.S. inflation.
• Mizuho warns oil in the $100–$130 range “would not only take Fed rate cuts completely off the table, but probably trigger a mild rate-hiking cycle at the very least.”
• A prolonged oil spike could act “as a tax on business and consumers.”

The Associated Press adds that higher oil prices raise the prospect of costlier gasoline for U.S. drivers and higher goods prices at a time when consumers are already stretched.

Energy up. Gold up. Yields up. That combination signals inflation pressure — and that’s bad news for mortgage rates, credit card rates, and household budgets.

This is risk mapping in real time. If yields continue climbing, housing and credit are next.

Sources referenced:
– Reuters (oil, bond yields, Rabobank, Mizuho commentary)
– Associated Press (oil surge and inflation impact)

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