Скачать или смотреть How to Trade ES (E‑mini S&P 500 futures) June 13, 2025 - Israel Strikes Iran - Premarket Checklist

Given today’s market drivers, here’s how you could approach trading ES (E‑mini S&P 500 futures) on June 13, 2025:


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🧭 Market Context & Catalysts

Geopolitical tension: Israel's strike on Iran sent S&P futures down ~1–1.5% and sparked a sharp oil rally, triggering risk aversion .

Short-term rebound potential: Historically, market dips from regional conflicts tend to recover within a few weeks .

Technical readings: TradingView signals a “strong buy” on moving averages, though oscillators flag “strong sell” — suggesting divergent momentum .



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🔍 Strategy Setup

1. Pre-Market Review & Positioning

Focus on the early sell-off: watch for a panicked drop (e.g., open ~1% lower).

Use VWAP to guide entry—aggressively fade large deviations off the volume-weighted average .


2. Scalp Bounce Trades

If price dips significantly below VWAP, consider quick long scalps toward VWAP.

Maintain tight stops below recent lows to limit downside if volatility accelerates.


3. Reassess Mid‑Session

If stabilization occurs (price near VWAP): shift to a momentum play assuming dip-buyers emerge.

Break of short-term resistance (~ES 6,000–6,050): consider layering in longs targeting prior resistance (~6,138 per CPI analysis) .


4. Hedge / Defensive Trade

Expect oil-induced inflation pressure; a breakout could stall—so consider a stop-limit for long positions just below VWAP to protect capital.

Alternatively, keep small short exposure if breakdown below major moving averages (20/50‑day).


5. Risk Management

Keep position sizing disciplined—ES moves $50 per point.

Use micro‑ES (MES) if concerns about leverage or volatility.

Monitor macro news: CPI release, updates on conflict escalation, Fed signals.



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🧠 Trade Flow Summary

Market Condition Strategy Notes

Pre‑market, gap‑down Fade below VWAP Short scalp, tight stop
Mid‑session pinch & stability Momentum long Overlay breakout above VWAP / resistance (~6,000‑6,050)
Breakout above resistance Add long cautiously Scale into move above ~6,138 if supported by CPI data
Breakdown through MAs Defensive short Hedge against further risk



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✅ Quick Checklist

1. Identify VWAP pre-market; define risk zones.


2. Enter fade long on dip, short scalp below VWAP.


3. Shift to momentum long on stabilization/breaks.


4. Use tight stops, respect key levels (~6,000, 6,138).


5. Watch news flow closely—CPI data, Middle East conflict updates.




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🧩 Why This Works Today

You’re exploiting mean‑reversion versus VWAP while hedging for a sustained move.

Diverging technicals suggest both dip-buy and momentum approaches could work.

Historical patterns show conflict-induced dips often rebound after a few weeks—today’s sell-off may provide opportunity .



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📌 Final Take

Trade with discipline: fade the panic early, then pivot to momentum if the bounce holds. Use micro-ES for precision and tight risk control. Keep an eye on headline risk and be nimble.

Want help setting specific entry/exit orders or ideas for managing open exposure later in the day?

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