Скачать или смотреть Capital & Context Podcast Ep 2: Navigating the Complex US Equity Market in 2026

Welcome to episode two of the Capital and Context podcast with Mark Insley and Sam Hallett. This week, the hosts discuss US equities.

Key Topics:

US Equities Overview: The US equity market is the largest in the world, making up over 40% of a worldwide index of equities. It includes traditional industrial companies like General Motors and Ford, older tech firms like Nvidia, major companies like Microsoft and Apple, and small-cap companies.

Market Complexity and Valuation: The US market is complex due to factors like tariffs and politics. Tariffs impacted global industries, such as the US automotive sector. On a short-term basis (forward or backward-looking 12 months on multiples of earnings), the S&P 500 appears expensive. However, on a cyclically adjusted basis, things look "okay". When moving out of the "Magnificent 7" (big AI names like Nvidia), the median S&P 500 stock is trading at fair value.

US Small-Cap Strategy: The hosts use passive funds for US large-cap holdings, as the large-cap space is considered "priced to perfection". For the US smaller-cap space (e.g., the Russell 2500 index), active management is preferred. Only about 10% of that index generates positive earnings, making quality focus essential. They use the T. Rowe Price Smaller Companies fund to concentrate on good-quality companies that are producing good income and still have room to grow.

Currency Hedging: The portfolios are currently 20% cable hedged in US equities. The vast majority of the hosts' peers do not hedge US equities.

Policy Backdrop for 2026: Tariff risk is real, and increasing tariffs are generally good for domestic producers. The US midterm elections at the end of the year will also play a role. The US economy is being propelled by AI spending. Overall, 2026 is lined up to be a decent year.

Don't forget to like and subscribe for more market insights! The next episode will focus on credit.