The War Against Ukraine After Two Years

This February, the war against Ukraine enters its third year. After two years of hard conflict the battlelines appear increasingly static, with Kyiv’s summer and autumn counteroffensive having failed to meet many in the West’s high (if unrealistic) expectations. While the United States’ Congress debates over continued funding for Ukraine, the European Union looks set to approve a large-scale package of support for Kyiv. Russia, in turn, is spending greater amounts of state resources on defense, keeping its own economy afloat through Keynesian economics. The recognition that the war will be much longer than anticipated appears to be spreading, but the commensurate policy actions still appear lagging.

What does the year ahead hold for Ukraine? Will it be a year of “active defense” and force reconstitution for Ukraine or will Kyiv go on the offense? Will political uncertainty in the United States undermine Kyiv’s planning? Will Europe be in a position to fill any gaps left by America? What does Ukraine need for its defense today and offense tomorrow? What lessons can we draw from Ukrainian and Russian adaptation? What does each tell us about the course of the conflict? Perhaps most importantly, what is a viable theory of victory for Ukraine?

Lt. Gen. David Barno, Dr. Nora Bensahel, and Michael Kofman join CSPC to discuss these questions, and many more, and to reflect on the war after two years and what the year ahead holds for Kyiv. They will be in conversation with Joshua C. Huminski, the Director of the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs.