6% Stock Market Returns for TEN Years…if You’re Lucky says Vanguard

Vanguard predicts investors will get a 5% annual stock market return, at best, over the next 10 years. That’s less than half the stock return most investors are used to and could be a big disappointment. Is Vanguard right and how do you estimate your own stock returns?

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Vanguard is out with its ten-year forecast and predicting a measly 5% annual return on stocks over the next decade. That’s less than half the 12.3% annual return on stocks over the last ten years. So why is Vanguard so bearish on the stock market and should you be worried? I’ll show you that forecast but stick around and I’ll reveal a simple way to forecast your own stock market returns and how to invest.

Vanguard is forecasting stock market returns of just 4.1% to 6.1% a year for the next decade. The prediction increases a little for foreign stocks but drops big time for growth stocks. Growth stocks, those high-flying tech stocks that have jumped over the last few years, are expected to post just 2.4% stock returns a year. That's less than a fifth the return on the group over the previous decade.

Vanguard also forecasts market returns for real estate stocks (REITs) and Bonds. Real estate could rebound after a few years of disappointing returns but even those are not going to make you rich. Bond market returns are decent for the level of risk but still below estimated stock returns.

Whether you believe Vanguard forecasts for stock returns or not, it does look like stocks will post lower returns than they have over the last ten years. Just how low is something you need to analyze and find for yourself. I'll show you exactly how to estimate your own stock returns with an easy three-step process in the video.

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Joseph Hogue, CFA spent nearly a decade as an investment analyst for institutional firms and banks. He now helps people understand their financial lives through dividend stocks, investing and ways to make more money. He has appeared on Bloomberg and on sites like CNBC and Morningstar. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and is a veteran of the Marine Corps.
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