Scientists: World likely won't avoid dangerous warming mark

(29 Sep 2016) LEAD IN
Scientists are telling world leaders that if more isn't done the world will likely hit the agreed-upon dangerous warming level in about 35 years.
Six top scientists have released a brief report saying that unless more cuts in heat-trapping gases are agreed upon within the next several years, the world will warm by another 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) by around 2050.

STORY LINE :
Morocco is experiencing growing desertification as rising temperatures allow the edge of the Sahara Desert to creep ever closer.
The harsh climate and low rainfall means little grows here.
The next U.N. Climate Conference takes place in Marrakesh on Nov. 7.
The Morocco conference is expected to hammer out the difficult details of how to make the Paris Climate agreement work.
Ahead of the meeting a team of top scientists istelling world leaders to stop congratulating themselves for the Paris agreement, saying if more isn't done the world will likely hit the agreed-upon dangerous warming level in about 35 years.
Six scientists who were leaders in past international climate science conferences have released a brief report today (Thursday ) saying that if even more cuts in heat-trapping gases aren't agreed upon within the next several years, the world will warm by another 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) by around 2050.
That 1.8 degree mark is key because in 2009 world leaders agreed that they wanted to avoid two degrees Celsius warming (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
Temperatures have risen about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) from the pre-industrial times to now, so that danger level is another degree Celsius or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.
Examining the carbon pollution cuts and curbs promised by 190 nations in an agreement made in Paris last December, the scientists said it's simply not enough.
The report's lead author is Sir Robert Watson, a University of East Anglia professor and former World Bank chief scientist who used to be chairman of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
"All of the governments in the world met in Paris last year and they agreed that human induced climate change is a huge threat to the environment and to development. They all agreed that we should try to limit the change in temperatures to no more than two degrees celsius relative to pre indsutrial (levels). This is a very laudable goal, all governments of the world agreed with it. However, what we found is the pledges that all of the governments have made will not put us on a pathway to a two degree world, much more a two and a half degree to three and a half degree world. So if governments want to meet that two degree target they have really got to strengthen their pledges."
Watson recounts a recent meeting he attended alongside the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and former US Vice President and climate change activist Al Gore, who were celebrating the Paris accord as a victory, which Watson says he felt was naive.
In Paris, the countries also added a secondary tougher goal of limiting warming to just another 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (half a degree Celsius) as an aspiration.
Watson says the targets are unrealistic unless governments act now to combat climate warming.
However he doesn't predict the worst-case scenario as the most likely outcome, he thinks that governments will act and the world will face a 'middle scenario'.
The report isn't published in a scientific journal.

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