Expect The Worst Case Scenario In Ukraine

While it appears the Russian military has not met the objectives they set out to accomplish on the first day of the invasion, this conflict is far from over. The odds are very heavily in Russia's favor. Reports say the Ukrainians are putting up stiff resistance, but Russia has only attacked with a third of their forces. Do not expect this to be wrapped up quickly.

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Guest: The last couple of days we've seen a sustained Russian offensive. Mostly initially airpower missiles. Targeting it sounds like Ukrainian military facilities. Then followed up by ground invasions from at least three points along the border. One from Belarus he actually seems to have sent. I think the two columns are fairly close to each other in Belarus. They've taken the Chernobyl nuclear plant which real cold war heads will remember. I don't like to date myself but you know.
Emma: There's also a tv show called Chernobyl.
Guest: That's true. You're right. you're right. probably in the consciousness. Those two columns look like they're making a run on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. There's a second column in the north that seems to have attempted to capture the city of Kharkiv. Which is in eastern Ukraine. It's the second-largest city in Ukraine. and the third column scene or third point of invasion seems to be moving north from Crimea. At this point I mean it's hard to know exactly where things stand. you get claims and counterclaims. The Russians aren't really saying very much of anything in terms of specific details. Volodymyr Zelenskyy last night said something like 140 something like 100 340 people had been killed Ukrainians had been killed that first day. I've since seen the Ukrainian military claiming that they've killed thousands of Russian soldiers. a couple thousand Russian soldiers. I don't know how much credence to give that. a lot of the analysis and again you know there's fog of war here and it's early going. But a lot of the analysis I've seen suggests that the Russians haven't achieved what they probably hoped to achieve with their first day plus of invasion. that they've been blunted a little bit. That doesn't mean that the war is going well for the Ukrainians. The Russians by all accounts still have only put in maybe a third of the forces that they have access to. so you know they can go bigger here. and probably you're looking at a fairly long slog. I don't know that the military-to-military component of this conflict is gonna be particularly long. but there's everything here to believe that there will be an extended occupation and insurgency if indeed the Russians manage to get into Kyiv and overthrow the government and occupy the country as it sounds like they're planning to do.
Emma: Which seems like they're planning to do right, which is very scary. I mean the prospect of occupation and given what Putin has spoken about and I want to get into maybe like the underlying nationalist ideology that he's operating with. but it appears that when he talks about how they'd be open to discussions about Ukrainian neutrality. do you perceive that as like neutrality from his perspective meaning Zelinsky out this be a more of a Belarus kind of situation where the leader is sympathetic towards Putin and acts as a bit of a client state if you will of Russia? Is that a bit is that really likely one of the best outcomes for him?