Скачать или смотреть Intro Stats 11B, Probability Addition Rule (Disjoint Events), Conditional Probability, Independence

The addition rule for disjoint events (mutually exclusive events), the definition of conditional probability, and the concept of independent events are key ideas in basic probability.

(0:00) In the gambling simulation, note that the long run average is close to -0.40.
(0:50) Also note that means are often called "expected values", even if such a value never actually occurs.
(1:21) Reminder that terminology and notation are on powerpoint slides.
(1:46) Probability rules, including the complement rule and the addition rule for disjoint events (such events are also called "mutually exclusive").
(6:42) Flip a coin four times and count the number of heads.
(9:23) An indication of how to simulate the flipping of 4 coins on a spreadsheet with RANDBETWEEN and COUNTIF.
(10:27) Card probabilities (based in a standard 52-card deck).
(15:05) Probabilities based on employment data.
(19:47) A two-way table with data from 2007 on U.S. employment and education levels for 25 year olds.
(25:14) Conditional probabilities: notation and calculation.
(27:47) Independent events.
(29:51) Multiplication Rule for Independent events.
(30:11) Application: holiday lights in series.